Bitcoin Monthly Closes Above The Clouds For First Time Since 2016

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:15 pm

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

Last night, Bitcoin closed out August and opened September with a new candle. At the same time, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap also closed its first monthly candle above the Ichimoku cloud since 2016.

That year, BTCUSD closed above the key level twice, unable to hold the first time around. On the second, successful attempt, the crypto asset rose more than 1500% over the next 12 months. Will Bitcoin hold and head off on a new uptrend, or is another retest of support necessary for the cryptocurrency to hold above the key level?

Ichimoku Provides Clear Perspective On Current Bitcoin Price Action, Pivotal Moment Ahead

Bitcoin price closed the August 2020 monthly candle at the highest point since the peak of the 2017 bull run. That pivotal monthly close in December 2017 at roughly $13,800 is the final resistance level before new highs, according to the Ichimoku indicator.

The indicator’s Chikou span is projected 26 sessions backward and shows where support and resistance lies (red dotted lines). The peak of the Chikou span marks the same monthly close.

After Bitcoin took out that key resistance level during its last market cycle, it was off to the races, and the asset barely corrected from there on out. But before the cryptocurrency blasted above the crucial level, it first closed and held above the Ichimoku cloud or Kumo on monthly timeframes.

In the first attempt, the cryptocurrency closed – but couldn’t hold – above the Kumo on monthly timeframes.

The Kumo consists of both the Senkou span A and Senkout span B, which each act as resistance and support. Additionally, when these lines cross, it can give a powerful buy or sell signal.

BTCUSD Monthly Ichimoku Cloud 2016 - 2020 Comparison | Source: TradingView

Markets are considered bullish of the Senkou Span A is above the B span. On monthly timeframes, BTCUSD isn’t quite there yet. The B span is still higher, with about a $500 difference between them.

After Bitcoin lost the Ichimoku cloud on monthly timeframes back in 2016, the leading crypto asset fell sharply to the Senkou span B where nothing but a wick was left behind.

Bulls stepped in to buy the dip with ferocity, propelling the cryptocurrency back above the cloud, through resistance, and soaring toward a new all-time high.

Conditions are slightly different this time around. During the last cycle, Bitcoin was considered bullish by the Senkou span crossover prior to the first attempt at holding above the Kumo.

The failure took the cryptocurrency down to the B span, which if happens again, would suggest a correction to $8,500. There, if history plays out the same, bulls would buy up the last major dip ever, and ride the position to a new record.

The Ichimoku indicator was created by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo loosely translates to one glance equilibrium chart according to Wikipedia, due to how many different signals it can provide at just “one glance.”

This one glance look at Bitcoin shows a pivotal moment ahead, and one that could lead to either the last retest ever, or new highs. But which is it?

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.