Bitcoin Could Close March With First Ever Quarterly Bear Signal

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin has had its most profitable quarter on record dollar for dollar, rising more than $25,000 in Q1 alone. But despite the enormous bullish impulse, the price action has left behind the first ever bearish divergence on quarterly timeframes in the asset’s history.

Making matters worse, March is historically be worst month on record for the top cryptocurrency over the course of the last ten years. Could the bearish signal combined with this factor result in a much more sizable correction across crypto?

Bearish Divergences Stack Against Bitcoin On Quarterly Timeframes

2020 was the year of the pandemic, and the year of Bitcoin. During that time, Bitcoin price spent the first three quarters of the year ranging between $4,000 and $10,000, but once that range was finally broken towards the end of the year, there were fireworks come Q4.

Q4 is traditionally a time for enjoying the fruits of one’s labor with Thanksgiving and other holiday celebrations, and this year was especially fruitful for investors who weathered the long crypto winter.

With an unprecedentedly negative year in the rear view, the exuberance of the celebrations have carried well into Q1 2021, and taken Bitcoin to its best quarter ever in terms of total dollars gained.

Q4 resulting in a stunning $18,000 added to the price per BTC, while in Q1 2021 alone, there’s already been another $28,000 added to each coin’s price tag, with more than two thirds of the month of March left to go.

However, according to one crypto analyst, Bitcoin price would need to rise another $20,000 or so to bring indicators high enough to close the month out without falling victim to several bearish divergences on the quarterly candle.

Several popular trading indicators are signaling a bearish divergence | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Probabilities Point To A Correction, Not Continuation For Crypto

The sharp-eyed trader checking the not-often watched timeframe was able to spot a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index, RSI, On-Balance Volume, Chaikin Money Flow, Money Flow Index, Commodity Channel Index, and the Accumulation/Distribution technical indicators.

Related Reading | Why March Is The Bloodiest Month In Bitcoin History

In this past, this many technical indicators stacking with bearish divergences on Bitcoin, resulted in one of the strongest uptrends in the cryptocurrency’s history.

The bearish divergence on the RSI is clear as day. | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The chart above shows how clear the bearish divergence is. To avoid these signals confirming with a bearish reversal in the short-term, Bitcoin price would need to continue tor climb by “$20,000 to $30,000” more before the end of March.

However, March is historically the worst month on record for Bitcoin, and that makes the probability of such a continued move unlikely.

But then again, this is Bitcoin and this bull market is the most powerful yet, so anything at all is possible, including another $20,000 to $30,000 move in less than 20 days.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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