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bitcoin bearish quarterly close march
Nexo Logo

Bitcoin Could Close March With First Ever Quarterly Bear Signal

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
1 year ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Bitcoin has had its most profitable quarter on record dollar for dollar, rising more than $25,000 in Q1 alone. But despite the enormous bullish impulse, the price action has left behind the first ever bearish divergence on quarterly timeframes in the asset’s history.

Making matters worse, March is historically be worst month on record for the top cryptocurrency over the course of the last ten years. Could the bearish signal combined with this factor result in a much more sizable correction across crypto?

Bearish Divergences Stack Against Bitcoin On Quarterly Timeframes

2020 was the year of the pandemic, and the year of Bitcoin. During that time, Bitcoin price spent the first three quarters of the year ranging between $4,000 and $10,000, but once that range was finally broken towards the end of the year, there were fireworks come Q4.

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Q4 is traditionally a time for enjoying the fruits of one’s labor with Thanksgiving and other holiday celebrations, and this year was especially fruitful for investors who weathered the long crypto winter.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Shakes Off Dollar Rebound But Beware Of Coming Bear Phase

With an unprecedentedly negative year in the rear view, the exuberance of the celebrations have carried well into Q1 2021, and taken Bitcoin to its best quarter ever in terms of total dollars gained.

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Q4 resulting in a stunning $18,000 added to the price per BTC, while in Q1 2021 alone, there’s already been another $28,000 added to each coin’s price tag, with more than two thirds of the month of March left to go.

However, according to one crypto analyst, Bitcoin price would need to rise another $20,000 or so to bring indicators high enough to close the month out without falling victim to several bearish divergences on the quarterly candle.

bitcoin quarterly bear div

Several popular trading indicators are signaling a bearish divergence | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Probabilities Point To A Correction, Not Continuation For Crypto

The sharp-eyed trader checking the not-often watched timeframe was able to spot a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index, RSI, On-Balance Volume, Chaikin Money Flow, Money Flow Index, Commodity Channel Index, and the Accumulation/Distribution technical indicators.

Related Reading | Why March Is The Bloodiest Month In Bitcoin History

In this past, this many technical indicators stacking with bearish divergences on Bitcoin, resulted in one of the strongest uptrends in the cryptocurrency’s history.

bitcoin quarterly bear div

The bearish divergence on the RSI is clear as day. | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The chart above shows how clear the bearish divergence is. To avoid these signals confirming with a bearish reversal in the short-term, Bitcoin price would need to continue tor climb by “$20,000 to $30,000” more before the end of March.

However, March is historically the worst month on record for Bitcoin, and that makes the probability of such a continued move unlikely.

But then again, this is Bitcoin and this bull market is the most powerful yet, so anything at all is possible, including another $20,000 to $30,000 move in less than 20 days.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbtxbtusd
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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