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Breaking News: Dogecoin Surges 6% After Elon Musk Unveils Crypto Payment Master Plan
bitcoin fractal

Blast From The Past Bitcoin Fractal Could Suggest A Record Reversal Is Near

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
1 year ago
in BTC
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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Mark Twain said that history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Such a scenario could be about to play out in Bitcoin, according to a potential fractal that mimics the setup before a previous record-breaking rally.

While the conditions aren’t quite the same for an exact repeat, there could be enough for the price action now and then to rhyme just enough. Let’s take a closer look.

Record-Breaking Bitcoin Price Fractal Found, But Is It Valid?

Markets are cyclical and patterns repeat in those markets so often, they can be used to predict the future. Most of the statistically proven technical patterns include some type of geometric shape such as triangles and rectangles.

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But not all setups are so clear. Repeating patterns called fractals can appear, mimicking the price action of past moments. When fractals appear, they aren’t a perfect repeat of the situation before, but can yield similar results.

Related Reading | Could Kazakhstan Turmoil Cause Another Bitcoin Hash Crash?

The fractal in question is a setup from October 25, 2019 – in the past dubbed the “Xi pump” or “China pump.” Bitcoin price had swept support after more than a month of grinding against it, only to sharply reverse.

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Not only did price action reverse, the resulting short squeeze and FOMO led to a record-breaking 44% climb in a matter of 48 to 72 hours. It was the third-largest single-day rise in the cryptocurrency’s history.

BTCUSD_2022-01-06_14-04-02

Price action mimics a fractal from October 2019 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Will The Death Cross Breathe New Life Into Crypto Bulls?

The fractal above is eerily similar to the price action during the October 2019 downtrend. The peaks and troughs match well enough, as pictured above.

What is more potentially telling, is the fact the same setup is brewing when Bollinger Bands are turned on. 12-hour BTCUSD timeframes show a similar pattern, then a very similar close outside of the lower Bollinger Band. After a pause and a pair of doji, Bitcoin price reversed and reversed hard.

2022-01-06 14.04.47

The Bollinger Bands could snap BTC back to $60K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

If the pattern were to repeat or even rhyme, there is potential for a historic, record-breaking reversal. The last time the setup happened in October 2019, there was a 44% climb in the days that followed.

Related Reading | 2022: The Year The Secular Bitcoin Bull Run Could End

Another 44% climb would take Bitcoin back above $61,000 per coin and it could happen in just days. Fractals, however, aren’t valid, statistically proven patterns with any probability behind them. They simply can appear to look like past price action, but completely fail to yield the same results.

BTCUSD_2022-01-06_15-03-58

Could Bitcoin pump into the death cross again? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Finally, there is a looming “death cross” on the daily, which also appeared around the same time as the so-called China pump. A death cross happens when the a short-term moving average – the 50-day MA – crosses below a long-term moving average – the 200-day MA.

Despite all the similarities, the fractal above should be taken with a grain of salt – salt that may end up in the wounds of bears should this pattern play out.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tags: bitcoinBollinger bandsbtcbtcusdBTCUSDTcryptoxbt
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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