Because Bitcoin is the first ever cryptocurrency, it often has a cult-like following of investors who won’t touch an altcoin no matter the potential ROI or promise behind the technology. But the recent alt season has investors in profit from the bull run converting BTC into other coins in search of better performance.
After such an incredible run by assets like Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Dogecoin, and several others, and the fact Bitcoin is building momentum, the expectation is now that BTC dominance will soon reverse, and altcoins will see some reckoning as a result. However, according to the Relative Strength Index on monthly BTC.D charts, altcoin season might not yet have even started.
Bitcoin Dominance Takes A Hit, But The Fall Might Just Have Begun
An altcoin season is defined as a period of time when alts outperform Bitcoin by a large margin. The top cryptocurrency’s 200% returns of 2021 are shocking by normal standards, by compared to the run that Dogecoin, Solana, or Cardano have had since the year began, it is a meager milestone at best.
Most cryptocurrencies have been beating Bitcoin in both USD growth and on the BTC ratio. Such altcoins are often trending, shooting up in price after a listing or sometimes for no reason at all. All signs point to an altcoin season that has already produced life-changing results.
Except the real altcoin season of this cycle might not yet have even truly started, if the Relative Strength Index is any indication.
Losing this support level could send altcoins into overdrive | Source: BTC.D on TradingView.com
The Level To Watch For The Altcoin Season Finale
Examining the chart above, BTC dominance has yet to reach oversold conditions on the monthly timeframe. Bitcoin itself rising above a reading of 70 on the RSI sent the cryptocurrency into the bullish impulse that took it to $65,000. Falling below 30 is the opposite signal.
During the last cycle, dominance briefly dipped into oversold territory, but didn’t truly go bonkers until the second half of 2017. Altcoin season stayed active full steam until early-to-mid-2018, when the bear market began and Bitcoin became the better store of value.
Altcoins then fell by 95% or more in most cases, with Bitcoin only dropping by around 84% in contrast. The metric then bounced by more than 100% from 35% to 72% dominance in favor of Bitcoin at the very top.
Currently, dominance is hanging around the 41% level, which was the second in a series of peaks marking the double bottom pattern that ended altcoin season the last time. Blasting through it, should send the monthly RSI into overdrive, and ring in the true altcoin season where unimaginable wealth is made.
Other signals that the storm has yet to arrive, is the Bollinger Bands only recently starting to turn down and expand compared to the last cycle, along with the LMACD barely having turned bearish by comparison.
— Tony "The Bull" Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) September 16, 2021
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com