How Futures Traders Could See The Bitcoin Selloff Coming

Tony "The Bull" Severino

3 years ago

3 mins read

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Part of what is so special about Bitcoin is the fact that is it inclusive to all, and never in the past required the participation of “smart money” and institutional traders. But to become a multi-trillion dollar asset as it is destined to, bigger players had to get involved to take things to the next level.

That next level is now here, and retail investors and traders are in the same market along with whales, corporations, and other high wealth individuals. These elite play in their own ball field, complete with their own set of rules and conditions. Some conditions can be so unique, that it can even help these traders avoid muddied signals coming from retail trading platforms. Here is how that all works.

The Great El Salvador Bitcoin Bull Trap

Bitcoin has been trading actively for more than a decade, and the network itself active for slightly longer. When it first released, it had no value at all. Today, it trades for $46,000 per coin, which has the cryptocurrency’s total market cap hovering just under one trillion dollars.

Growing from nothing to pennies, to a trillion dollars in value, is nothing short of amazing. Even greater of a milestone yet, was what happened yesterday when Bitcoin became legal tender in the Latin American country of El Salvador.

Rather than soaring sky high as the retail crowd would expect, whales bought the rumor, but sold the news and took out stop losses of overzealous retail traders in the process. How was it that retail was so easily duped, but institutional futures traders were not? It could come down to the unique technical at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, better known as CME Group.

Retail traders on Coinbase were bull trapped | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

How CME BTC Futures Tipped Off Institutional Traders

When BTC Futures made their debut on CME in 2017, it was the end of the previous Bitcoin bull run. Institutions made it clear then that cryptocurrencies weren’t yet ready, and shorted the coin to the ground. And it was the first time outside of unregulated derivatives markets that institutional traders could do so. It caused a bear market as a result.

Since then, the power of the CME platform has controlled much of crypto price action. So-called breakaway gaps left on CME charts are often filled later in the week. These gaps are left behind, because the Monday through Friday trading desk actually closes down for weekends and holidays – in contrast to the always on markets of Coinbase or Binance.

In the comparison between the two charts above, even technical indicators on the CME Futures chart on the left doesn’t exhibit the same bull trap situation. On the evening that Bitcoin was due to become legal tender, the LMACD indicator crossed bullish on the Coinbase chart (pictured on the right), suggesting that a bigger move up was essentially confirmed.

But on the CME chart, no such crossover occurred, which was telling of whales’ next moves. The momentum had long crossed bearish, but was waiting for price to react. React it did, and Bitcoin price flash crashed by $10,000 and nearly 20% due to the severe liquidations seen across the crypto space.

CME traders could have easily seen this coming, given the fact their chart never had a bullish signal to trap retail traders.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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