Why Bitcoin Could Be Less Than 120 Days Away From Retesting ATHs

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 8:10 am

3 mins read

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands 120 days all-time high

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Bitcoin price is currently pulling back alongside the broader crypto market following a strong move from $20,000 to $29,000 in a matter of two weeks. The sharp rally has the market speculating that a bottom might be in.

If the bottom is indeed in, based on past historical performance, BTCUSD could be back retesting all-time highs within 120 days or less. Find out why below.

Why BTCUSD Could Reach Former Highs In 120 Days Or Less

All markets are cyclical, and crypto is no different. For example, Bitcoin shows cyclical behavior based on its halving event, where the block reward miners receive in BTC is slashed by 50%.

In technical analysis, all kinds of timing-related behavior exists. Another example includes the January Effect, or the concept of selling in May and going away, both representing seasonality in cryptocurrencies and other markets.

Serial correlation, or autocorrelation, is yet another time-based observation where price action correlates with price action from a previous data set in the same asset. An example of this is the phenomenon is that Bitcoin has peaked between November and December three times in a row: in 2013, 2017, and again in 2021.

Using the six-week Bollinger Bands and the idea behind serial correlation, it may be possible to predict that Bitcoin price revisits $65,000 per coin in less than 120 days, as past data suggests.

BTC has always hit the upper band within 120 days from now | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Could Bitcoin Be Back At Former All-Time Highs In A Few Months?

Past price history is not a guarantee of future performance, but from historical data technical analysts can improve the probability of success using such information.

Looking at past bottoms in Bitcoin price on the six-week timeframe, two large white candles always signaled a bottom was in. This represents more than 12-weeks of positive performance, just shy of a full quarter.

Once the bottom was in, Bitcoin made push above the middle-SMA on the Bollinger Bands, and then within the next several candles immediately made a run for the upper Bollinger Band.

In 2015, after the bottom was in, it took seven 6W candles before touching the upper BB. Four years later in 2019, BTCUSD did it in only five 6W candles. Even on the longer end of the two instances, it would suggest that Bitcoin could touch the upper Bollinger Band within 120 days.

What makes this impressive and very different than the past, is the fact that the upper Bollinger Bands on the timeframe is located at $64,000 per coin, or right around former all-time highs set in 2021. Could BTCUSD really be back at former ATHs in less than 120 days?

#Bitcoin 6W Bollinger Bands: After the bottom was in, within 7 bars BTC hit the upper BB

In 2019 it took only 5 bars. In 2023 our 5th bar just opened.

If BTC were to again hit the upper BB in >7 bars, this suggests that we'll see BTC at $64K+ within 3-4 months or ~120 days. pic.twitter.com/GCmcBT9lQs

— Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) March 27, 2023

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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