This Key Market’s Upsurge Shows How Fragile The Dow Jones Really Is

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opened in positive territory this Tuesday after plunging by 2.38 percent in the last two daily sessions.

The index bounced by 0.54 percent, or 153.4 points, shortly after the opening bell, its gains led by tech stocks. Apple and Intel both registered early-morning profits after rising 1.4 and 1.3 percent, respectively.

3M (MMM) plunged 4.1 percent after posting weaken-than-expected four-quarter data and revealing details of a restructural plan that would sack 1,500 employees. Dow also held back profits due to weaker performance of other top stocks, including United Technologies (UTX) and Pfizer (PFE).

Cousins of the Coronavirus

The overall recovery for Dow came as investors assessed the events relating to the Coronavirus outbreak.

The escalating epidemic – which is now reported as “contained” – killed about 100 people and contaminated more than 3,000 across China, the US, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada, Singapore, and other countries.

Investors’ concerns were high on China undergoing a severe market downturn in the first quarter against the Coronavirus fears.

It would have left the global market outlook in distress, especially after posting uninterrupted price rallies since October.

The latest update on the virus somewhat reduced the fear of an outbreak. But it did not wade off concerns that were there before the epidemic came into the equation.

Financial Times reported that major indexes like Dow are full of “economically-sensitive” companies, which could negate this year’s risk-on mood.

The global stock market rally remains unexplainable, given the global growth data which has not accelerated in tandem. Mark McCormick at TD Securities cited their tracking model which shows about a 20 percent gap between the growth of MSCI World Equities and Global Purchasing Managers’ Indices.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley added that Dow, as well as S&P 500, fell as a part of a normal downside correction. As the market waits for the earning report of leading US companies, positive data, hopefully, will save the overall market rally.

Dow can further correct as the off-risk market spikes

The Wall Street Journal in its Tuesday report stated that the sudden downswings in Dow and other US indexes have sent investors looking for “safer assets.”

The theme of risk-aversion sent perceived safe-haven Gold 1.23 percent higher this month. That includes gains that came against the backdrop of this Friday’s underperformance of the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500.

With Coronavorus fears easing, investors are likely to watch the outcome of FOMC’s monthly meeting on Wednesday. Experts believe that the Fed would likely to remain loose on monetary expansion.

The US central bank is running a pseudo-quantitative program by buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion a month.

Expectations of a slowing down the program could have the Dow and others register a correction (Morgan Stanley thinks in a range of 5 percent). That shows why risk-off sentiment has grown higher over this month, which also saw an escalating geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran.

Even an offbeat asset like bitcoin has registered 22.45 percent gains against the same factors.