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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Déjà Boom—Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s 2022 Rally Setup Is Back

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
4 months ago
3 mins read
bitcoin news Arthur Hayes

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin’s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being mixed again. Speaking on the “Forward Guidance” podcast just minutes after a market-soothing Trump press conference, Hayes said the present environment “feels like November 2022.”

Can Bitcoin Increase Sixfold Again?

In Hayes’s telling, the fulcrum of the next impulse is not the Federal Reserve but the US Treasury. “People forgot about the other side of the equation,” he argued. “Yellen printed two-and-a-half trillion dollars just by switching issuance to bills, and now Scott Bessent is talking about Treasury buybacks—another form of stealth quantitative easing that needs no input from the Fed.” Hayes cited his own arithmetic from the previous episode: between September 2022 and early 2025, Bitcoin rose roughly 6x while the Fed’s balance sheet was ostensibly shrinking, a move he attributes almost entirely to Treasury-engineered liquidity.

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That dynamic, he contends, has returned. The Trump administration’s initial “maximalist” tariff schedule, announced in mid-April and aimed at slashing the US current-account deficit, triggered a brief but violent sell-off in bonds and equities before Trump began “concession after concession.” The rapid policy retreat, Hayes said, confirms that “the American financial system is so highly levered it couldn’t take one week” of trade hardball. To him, that single week exposed the political impossibility of fiscal retrenchment and made additional money creation inevitable. “They can call it whatever they want—just don’t call it QE—but it has the same effect: liquidity rises and Bitcoin benefits.”

Hayes’s decoupling thesis rests on arithmetic as much as narrative. If tariffs do trim the current-account gap, the mirror-image financial-account surplus must also fall, reducing foreign demand for US mega cap stocks.

“Mathematically, if Trump is serious, foreigners have to sell stocks. Period,” he said. In that world, Bitcoin’s flows are driven not by equity beta but by a global scramble for neutral stores of value amid escalating currency and trade friction. He expects “US-tech exceptionalism” to fade just as Bitcoin’s structural bid strengthens.

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The former BitMEX chief also sees a latent tail-risk in Japan. A stronger yen, encouraged by Washington to help weaken the dollar, could force Japanese investors to unwind enormous USD carry trades, dumping Treasuries and pushing yields toward levels that would “corner the Fed into covert curve control.”

Any volatility spike of that kind, Hayes noted, historically elicits a rapid-fire response from the Federal Reserve—even if it arrives cloaked as a new alphabet facility rather than outright bond-buying. “Every time bond-market volatility spikes, the Fed does something,” he remarked. “It might not be QE in the traditional form, but it leads to the same outcome.”

Throughout the hour-long conversation Hayes returned to November 2022 as the template. Back then, markets were reeling from the aftermath of FTX and bond yields were surging, yet Bitcoin began a relentless grind upward as the Treasury tapped the reverse-repo basin for fresh cash. Today, he sees an echo: “This feels like November 2022,” he told host Felix Jauvin. “Shit’s going up.”

While Hayes stopped short of naming a price target, the implication was clear. In 2022–25 the stealth-liquidity wave took Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to above $100,000. With Besson’s buyback machinery “ready to go” and political appetite for austerity already exhausted, Hayes says the stage is set for a sequel.

At press time, BTC traded at $92,559.

Bitcoin price
BTC retests the key support zone, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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