Bitcoin Bull Run Is Only Just Starting, According To This Metric

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin SOPR hasn’t yet reached high levels that have been associated with heated bull market phases in the past.

Bitcoin SOPR Has Only Seen Mildly Positive Values Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has explained how market psychology has driven the BTC price during the past few years. The on-chain indicator that best represents the Bitcoin trader psychology according to the quant is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR).

The SOPR basically tells us about whether the BTC investors are selling their coins (or more precisely, transferring them on the blockchain) at a net amount of profit or loss.

When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit right now. On the other hand, a value under this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants.

Naturally, when the SOPR has a value exactly equal to 1, the overall market can be assumed to be just breaking even on their selling, as the number of profits being realized is exactly canceling out the losses.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR over the past few years:

Looks like the value of the metric has been slightly positive in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

In the above graph, the analyst has marked the pattern that the Bitcoin SOPR has followed in recent years. During the 2018 bear market, the BTC SOPR dropped to pretty low values below 1 following the November 2018 crash. Coinciding with these lows in the metric, the price also found its bottom.

In the 2022 bear market, the BTC investors were keeping still in the red as they participated in only a relatively low amount of loss selling until the FTX crash occurred and the holders finally capitulated to a significant degree.

So far, it would appear that the low after the FTX collapse was indeed the bottom for the current cycle, as BTC has only gone and doubled in value since then. The pattern of this bottom has also been consistent with the one of the 2018 bear market.

In between these two major bottoms, there was also a large-scale capitulation event back in 2020, but this crash was mostly an anomaly caused by the unexpected emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

From the chart, it’s visible that the trend during rallies has generally been just the opposite: investors start selling at large profits and once the profit-taking attains extreme levels, the top is hit.

Earlier this year, the BTC SOPR spiked to high levels around when BTC hit its local top in April. Since then, though, the indicator has remained relatively calm, with some mild profit-taking coming after the latest leg in the rally.

“There will be many corrections and declines in the current market until it reaches the peak of the bull market, but from a psychological perspective, there still seems to be enough time left until the latter half of the bull market,” thinks the quant.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had registered a decline below the $37,000 level during the past day, but the asset has pulled itself back up since then as it’s just floating above the mark now.

The price of the asset appears to have seen some drawdown recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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