Bitcoin Could Decline Further Before A Rebound, Here’s Why

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

The pattern of an on-chain metric may suggest that Bitcoin could see more downside ahead before a rebound is found.

Bitcoin STH SOPR Hasn’t Hit The Bottom Zone Yet

An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the BTC short-term holders are selling at a loss. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR),” which tells us whether the Bitcoin holders are selling their coins at a profit or a loss.

When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is moving their coins at a profit. On the other hand, values below this threshold imply that loss-taking is the dominant force in the sector.

The SOPR being exactly equal to one naturally suggests that the market is just breaking even on its selling right now as the total amount of realized profits cancel out the losses.

The SOPR can also be defined for just a part of the market. In the context of the current discussion, the short-term holder (STH) group is of interest. These investors have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin SOPR over the past several years:

Looks like the 30-day MA value of the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin STH SOPR had been above one for most of the year 2023, but following the recent struggle in the asset’s price, the indicator has dipped below this mark.

Historically, the one indicator level has been a line of support for the cryptocurrency, as it has often found rebounds. For example, Bitcoin found bottoms at this mark during the slumps in both March and June.

With the recent drawdown, though, this support level has been breached, as the STHs are now selling their coins at a loss. Usually, whenever the metric dips below this level, it doesn’t come back above it quickly, as the line begins to act as resistance instead.

The Bitcoin STH SOPR has historically been able to find rebounds in the green box that the quant has highlighted in the chart. The indicator is still a notable distance above this bottoming zone.

If the BTC price will only find its rebound when the indicator dips inside this zone, then more decline could be ahead for the asset so that the STHs are pushed into capitulating at a deeper degree.

BTC Price In The Short Term

Bitcoin has continued its sideways struggle recently as the cryptocurrency has been unable to find a break in either direction. The asset’s price is floating around the $25,700 mark.

BTC continues to show stagnation | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.