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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000

Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: November 7, 2025 5:06 am
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level.

Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network.

To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis.

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A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it.

Bitcoin STH Realized Price
The trend in the various Realized Price levels over the last few years | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 44, 2025

As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater.

“Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply.

A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.”

The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500.

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The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA).

Bitcoin 365-day MA
BTC appears to have dipped under its 365-day MA | Source: CryptoQuant on X

CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The asset’s price seems to have recovered a bit since the low | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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