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Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort is still expanding, but a key profitability gauge has slipped back below neutral, creating a more cautious read on market structure even as older supply continues to move out of circulation.
In an April 17 market note, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply climbed from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, an increase of 3.06 million BTC in three months. At the same time, LTH SOPR, measured on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979 and has now remained below 1.0 for five straight days.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Data Turns Cautious
“The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” he wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In other words, more coins are aging into long-term holder status, but some of the coins that are being spent by that cohort are no longer being sold profitably.
The supply side of the equation still looks structurally constructive. Adler said the Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. He argued that the trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” while also noting that part of the increase reflects existing coins simply maturing into the 155-day threshold rather than fresh purchases alone.
A rising LTH Realized Supply series does not automatically imply new demand, but it does point to more supply becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasted the current setup with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply reached 15.31 million BTC in November before beginning to decline as older coins were spent. For now, he said, the current profile is more consistent with consolidation near $75,000 than with a broad distribution event.
The warning sign is coming from holder behavior at the point of sale. Adler described repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February, a sign that long-term holders who are spending coins have periodically been doing so at a loss. The latest reading, 0.979, follows a deeper episode in late March and early April, when the indicator dropped to 0.798 and stayed below 1.0 for seven consecutive days before briefly recovering between April 5 and April 11.
Adler stopped short of calling that capitulation. “The current picture is a series of recurring shallow dips below 1.0 with quick recoveries, not a prolonged capitulation,” he wrote. “The key question now is whether the current series will hold above the March lows (0.798) or SOPR will break below them. A repeat move deeper, combined with a simultaneous reversal of Realized Supply downward, is the real red flag for a regime change.”
That framing is important because it sets clear conditions for what would turn the current signal from local stress into something more serious. As long as SOPR remains in what Adler described as a shallow-loss zone and rebounds quickly, the implication is short-term pressure rather than a full bearish reset. In the note’s FAQ section, he said such brief dislocations have historically functioned as entry points rather than confirmation of a broader downside impulse.
The bearish case, by Adler’s own definition, requires two things to happen together: LTH SOPR staying meaningfully below 1.0 and deepening, while LTH Realized Supply rolls over. That would suggest not just loss realization by old hands, but a broader shift from cohort expansion into active distribution.
For now, Adler’s conclusion lands in the middle. The backdrop remains structurally positive because long-term holder supply is still rising, but the fresh loss-selling signal means the market is no longer cleanly constructive. The next move in SOPR, especially relative to the March low, may determine whether this is just another local stress episode or the start of a more meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s holder regime.
At press time, BTC traded at $77,880.
