Bitcoin MPI Crossover Could Suggest Bull Run Still On

Keshav Verma

4 months ago

2 mins read

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has recently formed a crossover that has historically been bullish for the asset’s price.

Bitcoin MPI Has Seen Its 90-Day MA Cross Above The 365-Day

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin MPI momentum has recently given a bullish signal for Bitcoin. The “MPI” refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the total miner outflow and its 365-day moving average (MA).

The miner outflow here is naturally the amount of the cryptocurrency (in USD) that is being transferred out of the wallets associated with the network’s validators.

When the value of the MPI is high, it means the miners are making more outflows than usual. Generally, the main reason why this cohort transfers tokens out of its wallets is for selling-related purposes, so this kind of trend can be bearish for the asset’s price.

On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the miners are withdrawing a lower number of coins than the average for the past year. Such a trend could be a sign that this group is preferring to hold for now.

In the context of the current topic, the Bitcoin MPI itself isn’t of interest, but rather a derivative indicator known as the MPI Momentum. Like other momentum metrics, this one also involves two MAs: 90-day and 365-day.

Below is a chart for the BTC MPI Momentum over the past few years.

As displayed in the graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin MPI recently broke above the 365-day one. This suggests miner selling has been gaining positive momentum.

While this may sound bad, the cryptocurrency has actually historically benefited from the pattern. From the chart, it’s apparent that the crossover generally signals the start of an extended bullish period for the asset’s price. The last time that the two MAs of the MPI displayed this trend before the latest instance was back in December 2022.

So far since the most recent crossover, the 90-day and 365-day MAs have continued to diverge away from each other, implying that the momentum in the metric remains strong.

Bitcoin has usually only hit tops when the 90-day has gained a large amount of distance over the 365-day. Thus, considering the current placement of the two lines, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency has some room remaining in this cycle, before miner selloff leads to a top.

BTC Price

Bitcoin fell towards the $98,000 mark during yesterday’s crash, but the asset appears to have found a rebound since then as it’s now back at $102,500.

Bitcoin Price Chart — The price of the coin appears to have witnessed some recovery during the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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