Legendary Bitcoin Puell Multiple Finally Enters ‘Buy’ Territory

Keshav Verma

9 months ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has recently declined into the historical bottom zone as BTC’s continued consolidation.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Is Now Under The 0.4 Level

As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the BTC Puell Multiple has declined under 0.4 for the first time since the end of 2022. The “Puell Multiple” here refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the daily Bitcoin miner revenue and the 365-day moving average (MA) of the same.

The daily miner revenue here refers to the USD value of the BTC amount the chain validators receive as compensation for solving blocks on the network. Miners also earn revenue from another source, the transaction fees, but in the context of the Puell Multiple, only the first component, often called the Issuance, is relevant.

When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, miners are currently making more revenue from block subsidy than the average for the past year. Similarly, it being under the threshold suggests these chain validators are earning less than usual.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past decade:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple had shot up earlier in the year and peaked in April. The rally mainly caused this surge that BTC had witnessed in the first quarter of 2024.

It’s apparent from the chart, though, that the indicator had observed a sharp plunge under the 1 mark right after this peak. The reason behind this lies in an event that had occurred then: the fourth Halving.

Halvings are periodic events programmed into the Bitcoin blockchain that permanently slash the BTC block subsidy in half every four years. With the Issuance being halved during the latest such event, it makes sense that the Puell Multiple registered a crash.

As BTC’s price has been showing a slow descent in the months since then, the USD value of the miner revenue has also been declining, which has naturally been reflected in the Puell Multiple. With its latest downward move, the indicator is under the 0.4 level.

Historically, the zone below this 0.4 mark has proven significant for the Bitcoin price. As the quant has highlighted in the graph, the asset has tended to form bottoms when the metric has been in this region.

The last time Puell Multiple was in this bottoming zone was when the cryptocurrency had observed its bear market lows in 2022. Given these past examples, it’s possible that the Bitcoin price would follow and show something similar this time.

That said, the price has generally only reached a bottom after BTC has spent some time in this zone. As such, it may be a while before the coin can reach a rebound, assuming the pattern holds.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been trying to move beyond the $58,000 mark during the past day, but the asset has been unable to gather enough momentum, with the latest attempt sending the coin to $57,600.

Bitcoin Price Chart — The price of the coin seems to have been rising over the last few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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