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Bitcoin’s rebound from the February 6 low at $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst argued that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales is still capping upside.
Maartun framed the current setup as a question of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he described as the bear market low, but he said that alone does not settle whether the market is turning higher in a durable way.
“The real question isn’t how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another rally that gets sold into? And that distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital gets misallocated.”
Bitcoin On-Chain Data Still Flashes Caution
His core argument is that the foundation beneath the market has improved even if price has not yet confirmed it. Over the last 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accumulation.” In Maartun’s reading, that signals coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants less sensitive to short-term volatility.
“That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders aren’t reacting to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.”
That constructive backdrop, however, is only one side of the picture. Maartun said a large part of the recent price push appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14.
He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally be expected to produce a stronger market response. When that does not happen, the implication is that substantial supply is meeting demand.
On that front, Maartun pointed to two seller cohorts. The first is short-term holders, who have moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Crucially, he said this is happening while SOPR remains below 1, meaning those holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from a position of strength.
“We’ve seen roughly 60,000 BTC move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “And importantly, this is happening while SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss. They bought higher and now they’re exiting into strength. That’s classic behavior in a bear market environment.”
He did not present that flow as wholly bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell into bids provided by stronger buyers. Still, he said it is a feature more commonly associated with bear market rallies than with clean trend continuation.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Red: Bearish Signal?
The second source of supply is whales. According to Maartun, wallets holding more than 100 BTC have been increasing exchange inflows, suggesting that distribution is picking up again at current levels. That matters because it creates a market where improving long-term structure coexists with active near-term selling pressure.
Price action, in his view, reflects that tension. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder realized price, which he placed around $83,000. Maartun described that level as a key pivot: in bull markets, price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading underneath it, and he said the market has yet to produce a clean breakout through major overhead levels.
The result is what Maartun called a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” Long-term holders are accumulating, strategic demand has appeared, and weaker participants are being flushed out. But short-term holders are still selling at a loss, whales are distributing into strength, and price has not reclaimed a key structural threshold.
That leaves the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue absorbing supply and push Bitcoin back above the short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could begin to translate into a more durable uptrend. Until then, Maartun’s conclusion is more restrained: the internal structure is getting better, but the rally has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt.
At press time, BTC traded at $75,088.
