Bitcoin Recovery: Has BTC Prevented A Fall To $41,000 With This Surge?

Keshav Verma

9 months ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin has made some recovery over the past 24 hours, which may have prevented this deep fall that the asset was previously at risk of.

Bitcoin Has Recovered Back Towards The $57,000 Level

Bitcoin witnessed a plunge a few days ago, but it has started this new week with bullish momentum, seemingly rejuvenated as its price has recovered to $57,000.

The below chart shows what the coin’s recent performance has looked like.

Bitcoin Price Chart — The price of the coin seems to have climbed up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

This 4% jump in the last 24 hours has completely retraced the price above plummet. Perhaps more importantly, the surge has helped the asset gain some distance over an important pricing level of an on-chain model.

BTC Hasn’t Yet Lost This MVRV Pricing Band Support Level

In a post on X, analyst Ali Martinez had yesterday discussed how BTC was retesting a support level part of the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands model.

As its name suggests, the model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This indicator tells us how the value held by the Bitcoin investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put into the asset (the realized cap).

When the ratio has a value greater than 1, the investors are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss in the market.

The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands model takes this metric’s mean value and relates standard deviations (SDs) to the price of the cryptocurrency. Below is the chart for the model that the analyst shared yesterday.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands — The various pricing levels relevant to this model | Source: @ali_charts on X

As displayed in the graph, Bitcoin had been retesting the $54,200 level yesterday, which corresponded to the price at which the MVRV ratio would attain the same level as its historical mean.

In the scenario that BTC had found rejection at this level and had dropped under it, the next important level from the perspective of the model would have been $41,100. At this level, BTC’s MVRV ratio would assume a value of -0.5 SD from its mean.

Ali had noted that BTC could have, therefore, been at risk of facing a correction to this level. With the recovery in the last 24 hours, though, the immediate threat of such a drop may no longer loom over the cryptocurrency’s head.

In terms of potential resistance levels ahead, the next Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Band is located at around $67,400, so there is still quite a while to go before a retest of it can happen.

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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