Post-Halving Twist: Why Bitcoin’s Actual Supply May Be Lower Than Expected

Samuel Edyme

2 months ago

2 mins read

New Analysis Shows Bitcoin’s Daily Supply May Fall Below Theoretical Levels

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Bitcoin has reclaimed significant ground after a steep correction earlier this month, now trading above $93,000. The cryptocurrency is currently priced at $94,014, reflecting a 5% increase over the past 24 hours and more than 20% in gains over the last two weeks.

This price level marks a renewed effort to recover from the recent drop that saw BTC reach as low as $74,000, placing attention on both market sentiment and underlying network behavior.

With renewed interest in Bitcoin following last year’s Halving event, a CryptoQuant analyst has revealed interesting insights on BTC’s mining dynamics.

Post-Halving Emission Rates Deviate From Theoretical Output

CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán has presented new insights into Bitcoin’s block issuance and total daily mining output, revealing a gap between theoretical assumptions and real-world data.

His observations suggest that while Bitcoin’s block schedule is largely predictable, on-chain measurements may provide a more accurate view of post-Halving supply behavior.

According to Bitcoin’s protocol, one block is expected to be mined every 10 minutes. Following the April Halving last year, the reward for each block was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

This would imply that approximately 144 blocks are produced daily, leading to an estimated 450 BTC entering circulation each day (3.125 BTC × 144 blocks). However, Alemán’s analysis indicates that the actual number of newly mined coins is often lower than this theoretical estimate.

By using the “Bitcoin: Total Supply” metric from CryptoQuant with daily resolution, Alemán examined the actual change in circulating supply and found discrepancies between the expected output and on-chain reality.

These variances may result from slower-than-average block times, network difficulty adjustments, or temporary congestion within the mining ecosystem. While the Bitcoin protocol maintains a ten-minute block target, real-world mining activity does not always align with that schedule precisely on a daily basis.

Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Offer Real-Time Supply Monitoring

The significance of Alemán’s findings lies in their implication for how Bitcoin supply is tracked and understood by investors, miners, and analysts. Instead of relying solely on theoretical projections based on protocol rules, on-chain metrics provide a view of actual blockchain activity.

These insights can help refine market models, particularly during transitional periods such as post-halving adjustments. The halving event, which reduced the block reward by 50%, is designed to limit Bitcoin’s inflation rate and enforce its fixed supply cap.

However, Alemán’s data suggests that monitoring total supply growth through blockchain records offers a more granular understanding of how much BTC is entering circulation on a day-to-day basis. This can influence market supply-demand calculations and even miner profitability estimates.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView — BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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