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Long‑term holders of Bitcoin may need to see a fresh high around $140,000 before they enjoy the same kind of profits they saw earlier this cycle.
According to CryptoQuant, that price point lines up with past peaks in realized gains for those who have kept their coins untouched for at least six months.
‘Market Magnet’ Theory
CryptoQuant used the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to track how deep in profit holders are right now. Based on reports, the average realized profit for long‑term holders stands at about 220%.
That sounds healthy. But in March and December 2024, holders were sitting on roughly 300% and 350% gains, respectively.
The gap between today’s 220% and those earlier highs is what Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, calls a form of “market magnet.” Many are calling for $140,000 BTC so that unrealized profits match the cycle’s top levels.
Profit‑Taking Trends
Long‑term investors have been selling as Bitcoin flirts with new highs. Recent data shows that these holders have driven much of the selling pressure in the past few weeks.
The average cost basis for this group — the realized price — is near $33,800. That means anyone buying before six months ago would need Bitcoin to reach $33,800 just to break even.
And to hit the profit levels of March and December 2024, BTC must climb to $140,000. This dynamic pushes some traders to lock in gains early, while others hold on for bigger moves.
Super Majority Still In The Green
Based on reports, a super majority of Bitcoin investors are sitting on unrealized profits worth a combined $2.5 trillion. That number reflects the overall strength of the market’s recent rally.
Even so, many investors remain confident that fresh buying can soak up any waves of profit‑taking. The current phase feels like a pause.
Buyers and sellers are sizing each other up. The question now is whether demand will pick up enough to drive that magnet‑level price.
Cycle Outlook And Next Steps
Analysts said that Bitcoin looks ready for a post‑breakout retest after breaking a multi‑week downtrend that began in mid‑May.
They added that the bull run might only have several months left before a final surge and then a change in trend.
If this view holds, that final push could be the moment when BTC nears or even hits $140,000. After that, history suggests a sharp peak and then a cool-down.
Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView
