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Altcoin Season Soon? Quant Says This Ethereum Pattern Could Suggest So

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: June 11, 2024 6:58 am
3 mins read
Ethereum Altcoin Season

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A quant has explained how a pattern currently forming in the Ethereum Open Interest could imply the altcoin season is coming “sooner than expected.”

Altcoin Season May Be Approaching Soon Based On Ethereum Pattern

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about why an altcoin season may be coming soon for the cryptocurrency sector, based on a trend taking place in a couple of Ethereum and Bitcoin indicators.

The first metric of relevance here is the “Open Interest,” which keeps track of the total amount of derivatives positions related to a given asset currently open on all centralized exchanges.

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When the value of this metric goes up, it means the speculators are opening up fresh positions for the coin right now. On the other hand, a decline implies the users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform.

Now, here is a chart that shows how the trend in the Open Interest has compared between Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past year:

Ethereum & Bitcoin Open Interest
The value of the metric appears to have been going up for ETH in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest has been moving more or less sideways recently, while at the same time, the metric has registered growth for Ethereum.

This would suggest that ETH has been seeing more appetite for derivatives market contracts than the original cryptocurrency recently. One of the driving factors behind this could be the news cycle related to the approval of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the asset.

In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for another indicator: the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). This metric measures the ratio between the Open Interest and the Exchange Reserve for any asset. The latter is naturally the total amount of the coin that’s currently sitting in the wallets of all centralized exchanges.

The ELR basically provides us with information about the amount of leverage that the average user in the derivatives market is opting for right now. From the graph, it’s visible that this ratio has seen a surge for Ethereum recently but has been showing flat action for Bitcoin.

Thus, it would appear that not only has ETH been seeing more speculative interest than BTC recently, but also these users opening contracts are going for higher risk as they are taking on more leverage.

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The analyst believes that the fact that Ethereum has overtaken Bitcoin in these indicators could be a potential sign that an altcoin season may be approaching soon.

“If Ethereum’s price continues to consolidate in the current range, it’s very possible that the altcoin season will start sooner than expected,” notes the quant. It now remains to be seen how things play out in the market in the near future, given this shift of trend.

ETH Price

After seeing a slowdown earlier, Ethereum has been back on track in the past couple of days as its price has now climbed back above the $3,900 level.

Ethereum Price Chart
Looks like the price of the asset has made recovery over the last two days | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
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The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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