Bitcoin At Risk Of 12 More Months Of Bear Hibernation, Possible Lower Low

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: December 12, 2019 5:00 pm

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

Bitcoin’s downtrend is showing no signs of stopping, and one important and commonly-used technical analysis indicator suggests that there may not be an end in sight until another 12 or more months of bear market price action and consolidation takes place.

Will Bitcoin return to a bull market after this correction finally bottoms, or will bulls be forced back into hibernation for another crypto winter as historic data shows?

RSI Drops Into Bear Territory, Another 12 Months Of Crypto Winter May Be Ahead

The first ever cryptocurrency has had an unusual year for the young financial asset. In under just one short year’s time, Bitcoin has bottomed at $3,100, and then topped out a few months later at $14,000. At the peak, investors were up over 350%, and even now are up well over 100% if they were fortunate enough to buy the bottom.

But despite still being up from the start of the year, the crypto asset was supposed to have been building a foundation for the next bull run to begin from, and is now instead locked in a vicious downtrend and is at risk of entering another 12-months of crypto winter hibernation and bear market, according to one crypto analyst’s interpretation of the relative strength index.

As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.

If history is any indicator, drops into the bear market RSI have lead to 12+ month periods of bearish price action/consolidation.

**IF** we see that again, this is the scenario I'd be watching for. pic.twitter.com/fZ6W6Q7hRN

— A Voice of Reason in a Sea of Insanity (@sometrader78) December 11, 2019

According to the analyst, each time the RSI on weekly timeframes has fallen into bear market territory on the indicator, Bitcoin has stayed there for “12+ month periods of bearish price action” and consolidation.

Bitcoin experienced such a trough back in late 2011, and again between 2014 and 2015. Most recently, Bitcoin went through a year-long bear market in 2018, only to have a short, three-month bear market rally in between. During that time, Bitcoin went parabolic, turning the entire crypto market blind with a bullish bias.

When you judge Bitcoin's monthly chart using RSI it paints one large bull market.

If that's the case, kinda scary to think about what a "real" bear market might look like. pic.twitter.com/9frtL8bZfO

— A Voice of Reason in a Sea of Insanity (@sometrader78) December 12, 2019

“Real” Bitcoin Bear Market Would Be Scary

The same analyst says that when looking at Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index indicator on monthly timeframes, the crypto asset has been in an ongoing, secular bull market its entire existence. He claims that if Bitcoin has had over year-long downtrends that wipe out over 80% of the asset’s value, but hasn’t actually been in a “real” bear market, it would be “kinda scary” to think about what such a bear market might look like.

Such a true crypto winter has been discussed by other prominent crypto analysts as of late, as the emergence of Bitcoin’s lower high and failure to set a new all-time high could point to the crypto asset inching closer to its first-ever “real” bear market – one that ushers in the complete destruction of the cryptocurrency industry.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.