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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP In Freefall: What’s Driving The Current Crypto Slump?
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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP In Freefall: What’s Driving The Current Crypto Slump?

Bitcoin Breaking Above $26K Could Cancel Crypto Winter

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bear market cancel

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Bitcoin, like many other cryptocurrencies, has taken a beating during the most recent crypto winter. But with spring right around the corner, the crypto market is heating up. 

BTCUSD was rejected after briefly making it above $26K per coin today. But above this barrier, the bear market could be officially cancelled. Here’s a closer look at why. 

The Painstaking Process Of Picking Bitcoin Bottoms

Bottoms in markets are challenging to call, and aren’t confirmed until long in hindsight. But this also means as an investor or trader you could be left in the rear view mirror of the next bull train to new all-time highs. 

A vast amount of effort goes into technical tools designed to tell analysts if an asset has bottomed or topped. Bitcoin, as volatile as it is, makes things even more confusing, but there are some tools which show some success. 

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For example, the “Pi Cycle Top Indicator” has famously called each crypto bull run peak. No such tools has a perfect track record on bottoms, but because of the proof-of-work system behind Bitcoin, we could have some idea of a theoretical price floor. 

The chart below depicts the cost to produce each BTC, which has been flatlining for months, and for the first time ever forming a longer-term base. This type of base-building is evident in commodities, which frequently bottom around the cost of production. Why would Bitcoin be so different?

Bitcoin bear market bottom BTCUSD_2023-03-14_16-56-49

Moving above the cost of production has put in past bottoms | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Why Cracking $26K Could Cancel Crypto Winter

Even Satoshi knew that prices of commodity-like assets would “gravitate” toward the cost to produce after supply sufficiently outweighs demand.

 “The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price,” Satoshi said in a 2010 BitcoinTalk forum thread. 

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Bitcoin has spent a considerable amount of time grinding against this floor without breaking it. The cost of production tool created by Charles Edwards has an upper and lower threshold. The upper threshold lies just above $26,000, making the key level especially important from a cost of production perspective. 

Above this level in the past has resulted in some of the largest bull runs in recent years. If BTCUSD can cleanly crack above $26K, it could be the last time the top cryptocurrency ever trades below $20K again. It also could officially cancel crypto winter and give way to an extra hot crypto summer. 

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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