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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Bull Market Failure: Why A Year-Long Trendline Could Signal Doom

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
5 years ago
3 mins read

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The entire crypto space has been on fire lately, causing most investors and analysts across the market to conclude that Bitcoin is just days away from entering its next bull market, ready to reach new all-time high prices.

But the most recent rally may now be over, and according to a year-long trendline, the latest move up may have been nothing more than a bearish retest confirming the 2019 uptrend as support now turned resistance before a shocking fall further.

Is a Crypto Bull Market Back On?

Ever since the start of 2020, Bitcoin has been rallying, bringing investors over 30% on year-to-date returns. Elsewhere across the crypto market, altcoins have also been skyrocketing, causing a return of investor confidence in the asset class.

Indicators on monthly and weekly timeframes all show signals that Bitcoin is soon entering a bull market.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Just Formed a Golden Cross, Restoring Faith in A Crypto Bull Run 

And while there may be truth to that theory, a one-year-long trendline dating back to Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could have just acted as a confirmation of support turned resistance.

Bitcoin in late December 2018, met its bottom at roughly $3,100. It wasn’t until early February, when Bitcoin made another retest of lows, that after support held, caused the crypto asset to take off on a parabolic rally toward $14,000.

But that rally topped out, and Bitcoin entered a six-month downtrend, that many now believe to be behind us.

However, the breakdown in mid-November was able to breach below the former 2019 uptrend line, before falling to current local lows around $6,400.

It was those lows that acted as a launchpad for the most recent rally.

But the rally may have just concluded with a retest of that year-long parabolic uptrend line, dating back almost exactly one year to the start of February.

bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin Bearish Retest of Year-Long Trendline Could Spell Disaster Ahead

As can be seen on the price chart, the retest of the bottom support and the retest of the uptrend line as support turned resistance are precisely a year apart.

The trend line acting as support turned resistance doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin cannot get back above it, but it does show that there’s potential here to stop the current rally in its tracks.

Bitcoin only broke below the important trend line after three touches, so it may require additional attempts by the leading cryptocurrency by market cap to break back above the line – if it is able to do so at all.

Related Reading | Bitcoin is Setting Up For a Violent Long Squeeze, Which May Trigger New Lows

And staying below the trendline doesn’t necessarily mean that Bitcoin can’t enter a new bull market, it just means that the trajectory to get there may be a little less steep and take a bit more time before it happens. But the longer and less steep the ascent, the healthier the rally will be.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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