Bitcoin Correction Soon? MVRV Triple Ribbon Approaches Bearish Cross

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon is approaching a bearish cross, a sign that a correction could be coming soon for the crypto’s price.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon Is Close To Bearish Crossover

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the MVRV ratio warns that a new round of decline may be coming for BTC. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The realized cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates a sort of “real value” for the asset by assuming that the true worth of each coin in circulation is the price at which the particular coin was last moved.

By comparing this realized cap with the market cap, the indicator tells us whether the coin’s actual price is fair or not right now. Here is a chart that shows the trend in three moving averages (10-day, 15-day, and 20-day) of this metric over the last few months:

The three MAs seem to have been closing in on each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

These three MAs of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio together form the “Triple Ribbon” indicator, and crossovers between these ribbons have historically had implications for the price of the asset. As you can see in the above graph, whenever the 10-day MA has passed below both the 15-day and the 20-day versions, while at the same time the 20-day has gone above both the others (thus keeping the 15-day’s position unchanged in the middle), a bearish crossover has formed for BTC.

There have been two instances of such a cross during the last few months; the first one occurred back in August when Bitcoin was at the height of its first relief rally of this bear market, while the other one formed in November right as the FTX crash came around. In both of these occurrences, BTC’s price took a deep plunge following the cross formation.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon has once again been approaching this same kind of bearish crossover recently. If these MAs continue in this trajectory and the cross does end up happening, then it might mean the crypto will see another sharp drop soon.

BTC Price

Looks like the value of the asset has continued to move sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,800, down 5% in the last week.

Featured image from Mark Basarab on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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