Since the start of 2020, talk of the upcoming Bitcoin halving has caused the first-ever cryptocurrency and the rest of the crypto market to skyrocket out of control.
It’s only this past week where a pullback occurred, caused by coronavirus-related market-wide panic. But despite the selloff, Bitcoin remains bullish, bouncing off the stock-to-flow baseline that suggests the asset’s value will rise exponentially after the halving this May.
Bitcoin’s Halving Is on the Horizon
There are few narratives that surround Bitcoin that have as loud of an echo chamber as the upcoming halving scheduled for this coming May 2020.
The crypto market has been anxiously awaiting the halving since the crypto market downtrend first began, as it is expected that the reduction in Bitcoin supply caused by the halving, will cause an imbalance of supply and demand that causes prices to surge.
Each pre-coded halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, hence the appropriate name of the event.
Because much of Bitcoin’s value is based on its digital scarcity, the event is especially notable.
It’s so notable, that a stock-to-flow model has been developed to track Bitcoin’s price progression based on that scarcity.
This model is highly cited throughout the crypto industry and even in mainstream finance, and points to Bitcoin reaching prices of $55,000 following the halving.
First-Ever Cryptocurrency Bounces From Stock-to-Flow Baseline
The model includes a 10-day and one-year baseline moving average, along with another moving average depicting the difference in actual price versus what the stock-to-flow model projects.
According to that projection, Bitcoin just bounced perfectly at the 365-day baseline.
When in doubt, zoom out. #Bitcoin
S2F 10D: $9.303
S2F 365D: $8.317
Current Price: $8.811
— CryptoKea (@CryptoKea) February 27, 2020
During the two previous Bitcoin bear and bull cycle, the crypto asset did the same just ahead of the halving, before going on a monster rally.
Just ahead of the halving, that monster rally was sold back down to the same baseline, where it bounced yet again.
However, the last bounce was the final major dip before Bitcoin took off into a full-blown bull market.
This time may be different, though. Bitcoin now has stiff competition from the rest of the altcoin market, and the greater financial market is in turmoil following fears over a possible pandemic, impending war, and a total global economic meltdown.
Although the asset was designed to replace overextended fiat currencies in the face of an economic recession, the high-risk speculative asset may be too young at this phase in time to serve that ultimate goal.
A collapse of the monetary system could create too much fear for investors to consider the asset class, even with a catalyst like the halving ahead.
With so much at stake at this current time in crypto, Bitcoin’s fate currently hangs in the balance.