Bitcoin Knocks At The Door Of $30,000, But Can Break Happen?

Keshav Verma

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 8:08 am

3 mins read

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Bitcoin has approached the $30,000 mark with a sharp rally today, but on-chain data suggests the level could provide some major resistance.

1.49 Million Addresses Bought Around The $30,000 Level

According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the most significant potential resistance for BTC is at the current levels. The “resistance” here refers to not the technical resistance, but rather the on-chain one.

From the on-chain perspective, levels are defined as resistance/support on the basis of the concentration of investors/addresses who bought at said levels.

The below chart shows what the distribution of the holders looks like right now across the various levels of the asset:

The data for the various on-chain resistance and support levels | Source: IntoTheBlock

Generally, whenever the price of the asset retests the cost basis of an investor, they may become more likely to show some kind of move. If this retest happens from below, that is, the holder had been in losses prior to this, they might be tempted to sell at break-even.

On the other hand, a decline in the price towards their acquisition price may lead to them buying more of the asset, as they might think that if these same levels proved to be profitable earlier, they could do so again in the near future.

The thicker the band of investors who have their cost basis inside a specific price range, the more pronounced effects like these would be. Thus, such ranges above the price could be looked at as sources of resistance, while those below may serve as support.

As is visible in the above graph, the $29,800 to $30,700 range is particularly rich with addresses right now. To be more particular, about 1.49 million addresses bought their coins here.

Naturally, this means that Bitcoin could find it troubling to cross above this range, as it has already happened throughout the past year. “At the same time, 73% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit,” notes IntoTheBlock, as the ranges below all have thick green bands currently.

While the range will be hard to clear, at least strong support below means the cryptocurrency could keep up the retests until eventually it can find a break. If BTC can indeed clear the range, it shouldn’t have much resistance at higher levels, as not many investors have their cost basis there.

One positive sign for the current rally could be the fact that it’s not driven by the derivatives side, as an analyst has pointed out on X.

The value of the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: @jimmyvs24 on X

In the above chart, the data for the ratio between the Bitcoin open interest and market cap is displayed. The “open interest” here is a measure of the total amount of BTC contracts open on the futures market.

The indicator’s value has declined recently, implying that the open interest has gone down relative to the market cap. This could suggest that the current rally is driven by spot buying.

BTC Price

Bitcoin is currently inside the range of major resistance discussed before as its price is trading around $29,900.

The value of the coin has observed a strong surge recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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