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Breaking News: Bitcoin Reaches Forecasted All-Time High: Prophecy Predicts Bear Market Low In 364 Days
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Reaches Forecasted All-Time High: Prophecy Predicts Bear Market Low In 364 Days

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Suggests Price Is Top Heavy, What It Means

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin price

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After the Bitcoin price crash last week, on-chain data reveals a picture that points to a “top-heavy” price. Glassnode’s latest insights shed light on the current market dynamics, where a significant chunk of the BTC spot supply finds itself with a cost basis either near or surpassing the prevailing price.

“Here we see that 12.8% (2.48M BTC) of the supply fell into an unrealized loss this week, setting a lower low on this metric. This suggests that ‘top heaviness’ in spot markets may also be a factor in play,” commented Checkmate, Glassnode’s chief analyst.

Bitcoin supply in profit
Bitcoin percent supply in profit | Source: Glassnode

Notably, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have displayed remarkable resilience in this turbulent period. Their interaction with exchanges remains largely unaltered, with the aggregate balance of LTHs marking a new All-Time High (ATH) this week. In stark contrast, the behavior of Short-Term Holders (STHs) emerges as particularly salient.

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Checkmate notes, “With LTH supply at ATH, we can also see that STH supply remains at multi-year lows.” The data further underscores this: out of the 2.56M BTC held by STHs, a mere 300k BTC (11.7%) remains in profit, meaning that 88.3% are in loss. This needs to recover quickly, else it adds to the bear case, according to Checkmate.

Bitcoin STH supply in loss
Bitcoin STH supply in loss | Source: Glassnode

Historical data indicates sharp upticks in STH supply losses following periods characterized as ‘top heavy markets’ – similar to the events observed in May 2021, December 2021, and once again, the last week.

Implications For Bitcoin Price

The fluctuating dynamics between profits and losses witnessed in the market can be further distilled through the Profit or Loss Bias (dominance) metric. As the 2023 rally unfolded, a discernible shift was noted in the STH cohort’s position: “This week we saw the largest loss dominance reading since the March sell-off to $19.8k. This suggests that the STH cohort are both largely underwater on their holdings, and increasingly price sensitive,” added Checkmate.

An intriguing revelation comes from Glassnode’s experimental tool aimed at discerning market inflection points. With a meticulous design that maps macro trends of investors and the prevalence of profitability over losses (and vice versa), this tool offers a nuanced ‘Momentum indicator’.

According to Checkmate, “We can see that after several months of declining profit dominance, Loss momentum and dominance have increased meaningfully.” Notably, while false positives have been recorded – as observed in the March 2023 correction – sustained declines have historically been precursors to sharper downtrends.

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Bitcoin Reaches Most “Oversold” Record Since 2020: What This Means

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Overall, the Bitcoin price crash on August 17 stands as the most significant single-day decline YTD. The sell-off was primarily a futures market leverage flush out, and is thus primarily a result of short-term positioning and market structure.

However, the predominant sentiment is one of caution, largely because the most significant impact has been technical, specifically falling below long-term moving averages, a factor that could sway market sentiment.

Long-Term Holders remain stoic, but the spotlight is on the Short-Term Holders. With an overwhelming 88.3% (equivalent to 2.26M BTC) of their supply at an unrealized loss, combined with an uptick in realized losses sent to exchanges and a breach of key technical support, the onus is on the bulls to defend their stance. Checkmate concludes:

There is for sure potential for further downside momentum, but the majority of the damage is positioning and technical. The bull case is that realistically nothing has changed aside from the price, and the R/R still favors the upside. Calls for 12k are kidding themselves, but calls for 100K are as well.

Net Result == same as every pre-halving year ever.

At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $26,084.

Bitcoin price
BTC price hovers above $26,000, 1-day chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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