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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Hits ATH Of $112,000, Expert Predicts Rally Is Just Beginning

Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Peak Since FTX Crash: What It Means

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin Open Interest

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In a market that has been relatively quiet for weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has suddenly sprung to life, with its Futures Open Interest (OI) reaching levels not seen since the FTX crash. Open Interest, a metric that measures the total number of outstanding futures that have not been settled, provides a glimpse into the trading activity and potential future price movements of an asset. A surge in OI can indicate heightened trading activity and interest in the market.

Starting early Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price action surged by more than 3.5%, breaking the $30,300 mark for the second time this month. This movement began around 5 am EST, pushing the price to a 16-day-high. The catalyst behind this surge seemed to be the rumor that insiders at BlackRock and Invesco have confirmed that a Bitcoin spot ETF is not a question of “if” but “when”, suggesting an approval within the next four to six months.

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“Bitcoin whales opened giga long positions at $29k,” remarked CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The Head of Research at CryptoQuant further added, “A lot of talk lately about increasing probability of Bitcoin spot ETF approval in the US. Now Coinbase premium sharply up and moving towards positive territory (implies Bitcoin demand in the US is strengthening). GBTC price discount has continued to narrow.”

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Skyrockets To Yearly High

Aggregate OI for Bitcoin futures saw a significant jump, increasing by over $1 billion from the previous day to a staggering $14.95 billion, according to Coinglass data.

Bitcoin futures open interest
Bitcoin futures open interest | Source: Coinglass

This surge marks the most substantial increase in over a month. However, derivatives activity on the CME, often seen as a gauge of institutional trading, remained relatively unchanged in OI, suggesting that the recent move might be predominantly retail-driven.

Miles Deutscher commented on Twitter, “Bitcoin open interest is now at its highest level since the FTX collapse. This indicates increased BTC trading activity from market participants. Looks like a big move is brewing.” Similarly, James V. Straten observed, “Bitcoin open interest is now greater than 2.25% of the market cap, approaching YTD highs, and looks exceptionally overheated.”

FOI vs market cap
FOI vs market cap | Source: Twitter

The Kingfisher, a renowned data provider for Bitcoin derivatives, noted, “Coinbase selling into every other major exchange buying. Looks like Bybit & Bitmex degens are betting on another $BTC leg up. While Bitfinex seems to be selling here.”

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On the options front, the analysts added that dealers seem bullish, ready to capitalize on both upward and downward movements. Their buying activity is currently stabilizing the price, while any significant upward trajectory could see them intensifying their buying. Meanwhile, the BTC liquidation map of The Kingfisher indicates that while there are still “some late high-leverage shorts to liquidate to the upside, but most of the short-term liquidity is down.”

Renowned analyst @52kskew provided insights into the BTC whale vs. algo divergence, stating, “Whales require quite thick liquidity to exit or close positions & most often this is during a squeeze event. Some firms will use algos in order to get the best price when closing out sizeable position (this is where TWAP algos come into play).”

Exit liquidity for whales
BTC whale vs. algo divergence | Source: Twitter @52Skew

CPI Release To Take Out The Heat?

Notably, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US is scheduled for tomorrow, Thursday, 8:30 am EST. The release has the potential to cause a mass liquidation of the overheated BTC futures market in both directions. A major move by the BTC price seems imminent.

Forecasts suggest a rise in the headline CPI from 3% to 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) for July, marking a significant transition as the positive impacts from the prior year start to wane. Notably, the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast model projects a 3.42% headline CPI, marginally surpassing general expectations. Core CPI is expected to slightly decline from 4.8% to 4.7% YoY.

At press time, the BTC price was just below key resistance at $30,000.

Bitcoin price
BTC price below key resistance, 4-hour chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from BTCC, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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