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Bitcoin traders are already betting the wider US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Data from prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 at 23%.
Markets React To Diplomatic Breakthrough
That confidence is showing up in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed to $74,650 on Thursday, bouncing back from an intraday low of around $73,050, according to TradingView data.
The move came within hours of US President Donald Trump announcing a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — a deal that had been quietly taking shape following direct talks between the two countries on US soil the day before.
Trump made the announcement on Truth Social, saying both sides had agreed to begin the truce immediately as part of broader efforts toward lasting peace. Short. Direct. And enough to move markets.
Nuclear Talks Add To Optimism
The Israel-Lebanon deal matters beyond its own terms. Iran had made clear it would walk away from its own ceasefire agreement with the US if Israeli strikes on Lebanon did not stop.
With that condition now met, the path to a second round of US-Iran peace talks looks more open. Reports from Pakistani mediators indicate a major step forward on Iran’s nuclear program, which was the main sticking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal in the first round of negotiations last weekend.
Bitcoin had already touched a multi-month peak of $76,000 earlier this week, driven by growing optimism that the US-Iran conflict could wind down. The war had weighed heavily on risk assets from its early days, with rising oil prices stoking inflation fears that kept investors cautious. As those concerns ease, money has started moving back into crypto.
Ceasefire Extension In Focus
Tensions remain, even if they have softened. Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week rattled nerves, though markets have since stabilized. The window for a resolution is narrow. Both the US-Iran truce and the newly announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire are short-term arrangements, not permanent agreements.
Still, the mood among traders has shifted. Pakistani officials are said to be shuttling communications between Washington and Tehran ahead of a potential second round of talks. Based on reports, both governments continue to engage through back channels even as formal negotiations pause.
Whether the ceasefires hold — and whether they grow into something more durable — will likely determine where Bitcoin heads next.
Featured image from ddnews.gov.in, chart from TradingView
