Bitcoin On Track To $100K, Why The Bull Cycle Could Be Just In Its Early Days

Reynaldo Marquez

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin trades north of the $32,000 levels as the bulls regain some conviction in the daily chart. The general sentiment in the market seems more bullish, but many still warn caution until BTC’s price moves higher to a safer zone.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has left many in the dark, wondering about its next direction. Uncertainty reigns supreme. At this point, experts have been comparing different Bitcoin bull and bear periods to grasp an idea about its future.

In lower timeframes, most seem to lean with the bears. Thus, they bet on more downside for the short term. Trader Josh Rager warn bears about BTC’s price capacity to drive short squeezes even in its worst times.

In late 2017, after reaching an all-time high of $20,000, Bitcoin went on a downtrend, but similar to its current price action, the cryptocurrency made 50% and 100% rallies “on the way down”, as Rager said while adding:

You’re in a bear market until proven otherwise. It means long term downtrend, A downtrend that has been happening for 4 months now.

Pseudonym trader Daan Crypto has an opposite bias. This trader also compared Bitcoin with other cycles and believes this and other cryptocurrencies are not in a long bear market, but at a key moment of the bullish cycle.

I personally do think the current cycle is not done yet and that we will see us move to new highs later this year which we’ll likely hit around Q1 2022 if I had to guess.

Bitcoin And Its Bullish Cycle, Will History Repeat?

Daan Crypto argued that the 4 Bitcoin past cycle can be divided into those with smaller corrections and a grind up towards new highs, as seen below.

The current cycle could be more explosive with a big peak at the middle, Bitcoin’s last all-time high at $64,000, and a few months of “bear market”. After this period, the cryptocurrency should recover and made its way back to previous and new highs by the end of the year.

(…) where we do see a huge correction, after which price starts to recover and sets a new high about 4-5 months later. After that it continues for a while, until it sets the cycle high and really starts the bigger bear market.

BTC BTCUSD — Source: Daan Crypto via Twitter

According to this prediction by December 2021, the crypto market should show signs of recovery, if it manages to break away from this “short bear period”, as the trader called.

The trader also believes that Bitcoin and its cycles dynamic could be changing. Eventually, traders and investors could see longer cycles with fewer returns.

This could be a consequence of the new capital coming into the market, its maturation, and the amount of time required to move the price around its new volumes. As evidence, Daan Crypto said:

Compare the now $1T+ market cap to the crypto market cap 10 years ago. Good luck trying to buy $1M of Bitcoin back then. While nowadays, this wouldn’t even move the market by more than a few dollars.

The trader did clarify that it’s impossible to be 100% certain on the times in BTC’s price cycles. In addition, he doesn’t rule out the possibility that Bitcoin stays in the lows for the remainder of the year.

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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