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Bitcoin To Explode By 80% Before Halving According to Past Cycle Comparison

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency news
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are having a strong year thus far, however, the rally is only expected to continue with the asset’s halving on the horizon this May. But how much could Bitcoin spike ahead of the monumental event?

According to historical analysis of previous market cycles in comparison to where the market may be right now, it suggests that the first-ever cryptocurrency is ready to surge another over 80% prior to the halving.

Bitcoin Price Ready for Another 80% Rally After Latest Pullback

The crypto market sentiment index has recently begun to teeter back toward fear from the extreme greed reached last week as Bitcoin surged above $10,000 for the first time in 2020.

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The important level failed to hold, causing the fifth-largest one-hour drop in Bitcoin’s history ever recorded.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Halving Overhyped: Previous Cycle Led to Another 6-Month Crypto Winter 

The crash took the price of the first-ever cryptocurrency back to $9,300, where it has currently held at weekly support.

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The drop caused the market to panic, expecting a break of the recent parabola to drive prices down further. But retesting and holding former resistance as support is incredibly bullish.

When comparing the previous Bitcoin market cycles, after the cryptocurrency held support at a similar level as current price action, the cryptocurrency explodes by 83%. However, it ultimately failed to make a new all-time high.

bitcoin crypto cycle comparison

(Click for full-size version)

If the same thing happens again, Bitcoin will surge to over $17,000 before another short-lived downtrend cuts the gains down to size.

After the next, shorter downtrend is over, Bitcoin goes full parabolic and sets a new all-time high – according to the comparison.

Comparing Past and Present Shows Crypto Rally Has More To Go

Further supporting the idea that Bitcoin has more to rally, is a comparison to the early 2019 rally.

On the way up after the breakout in April 2019, the leading crypto by market cap formed a golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Immediately after this occurrence, Bitcoin plummeted just under 10%.

bitcoin crypto cycle comparison

(Click for full-size version)

Just days ago, Bitcoin formed yet another golden cross, and the same exact drop happened once again.

Much like last time, analysts were watching a convergence of moving averages that would act as support for any pullbacks, but the golden cross proved to be too powerful, and the moving averages were never tested.

Related Reading | This 90-Year-Old Indicator Says Bitcoin Uptrend Is Just Getting Started 

Instead, Bitcoin rocketed higher, taking the cryptocurrency to $14,000 – much higher than anyone expected just months after trading at $3,000.

That move resulted in an $11,000 move upward. Bitcoin was just trading around $6,500, and another $11,000 push from there would take Bitcoin price to a target of roughly $17,500 – right where the past cycle comparison lines up with the pre-halving peak.

bitcoin crypto cycle comparison

(Click for full-size version)

The pattern of peaks and troughs would greatly resemble a five-wave impulse move up, according to Elliott Wave Theory. This also exactly matches the last market cycle.

More and more similarities can be found around every corner that all indicate that Bitcoin is entering its next bull market, and the next movement from here could be a powerful pump that takes the entire market by surprise – just like it did in early 2019.

Tags: bitcoincryptogolden cross
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a global remote work leader with a decade of award-winning content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter at @tonyspilotroBTC and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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