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WATCH: Bitcoin Versus DXY And The Dangerous TD9 Setup | Daily TA August 30, 2022

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
4 mins read
Screen Shot 2022-08-30 at 10.55.37 AM

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In this episode of NewsBTC’s all-new daily technical analysis videos, we are looking at the Bitcoin price monthly chart and the DXY Dollar Currency Index ahead of the monthly close.

Take a look at the video below.

VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): August 30, 2022

We are coming down to the wire here in the month of August, with less than 48 hours remaining until the monthly candle close. The month is especially critical for a number of pivotal reasons of which we’ll review in the video and in the text and charts below.

Related Reading

WATCH: Can Litecoin Lead A Crypto Recovery (Again?) | Daily TA August 29, 2022

2 years ago

The Terrifying TD9 Buy Setup On Monthly Timeframes

The first and most important factor weighing over the next couple of days in the crypto market, is a looming TD9 buy setup. The TD Sequential is a market timing indicator. Simply reaching a 9-count is enough for a buy setup. However, the signal is much stronger when the series is perfected. 

This can only happen with a sweep of the current low below around $17,500. It would also require a breakdown of all-time high resistance turned support and a breakdown of a decade-long monthly trend line.

    

A perfected TD9 setup would result in losing this trend line | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Could A Hidden Bullish Divergence Save The Day?

Bitcoin price continues to rest on the lower Bollinger Band – a first for the first ever cryptocurrency on the high timeframe chart. What we don’t want to see is price action close outside the lower band, which could lead to an explosive down-move.

Despite this risk, there are several signs that a bottom could also be in. The monthly momentum on the LMACD histogram and Relative Strength Index could be signaling a hidden bullish divergence. Stochastic is also nearing a turning point after reaching oversold conditions – another recurring bottom setup, especially when combined with a breakout of a downtrend resistance line.

Is this enough for a bottom? | Source: LTCBTC on TradingView.com

Or Will The DXY Defeat BTC Bulls Yet Again?

Remember, one half of the BTCUSD trading pair is the dollar. This means that when the dollar is strong, the BTC side of the trading pair takes a beating.

The best way to gauge the strength of the dollar is through the DXY – the dollar currency index – which is a weighted basket of top world currencies trading against the dollar. Much like Bitcoin price action is reaching oversold conditions with a possible hidden bullish divergence, the DXY is overbought and potentially forming a bearish divergence on each of the same indicators: RSI, LMACD, and Stoch.

Are dollar bears waiting for a chance to strike? | Source: LTCETH on TradingView.com

Comparing Currencies: Bitcoin Versus The Dollar

The similarities to the 2014 and 2015 bear market versus the most recent bear market in 2018, appear to be due to the dollar strength. The last time the DXY was this overbought was during what’s known as crypto’s worst bear market ever.

Plotting BTCUSD behind the DXY we can take a closer look at the possible correlation – or anti-correlation. The last extended up-move in the DXY is what led to such a lengthy bear phase in crypto. Interestingly, the Bitcoin plot at some points appears to be acting as dynamic support and resistance for the DXY, perhaps showing off an anti-correlated relationship through the trading pair.

Bitcoin has bottomed each time the DXY pushed above the BTCUSD plot line. Bear markets arrive during DXY upmoves, and Bitcoin performs well when DXY moves sideways, and the best when DXY is falling. With the DXY potentially at oversold conditions on the monthly timeframe, a pullback could be near or even a complete trend change that ultimately lifts Bitcoin out of its bear market.

Bitcoin has worked as dynamic support and resistance for the DXY chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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