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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Here’s How Bitcoin Could Crash To $28K, Bold On-Chain Data Shows

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
3 years ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin with two red downwards pointing arrows behind it on top of a crypto chart

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Bitcoin continues to be stuck in its current range. The first cryptocurrency by market cap has been unable to display clear conviction. The bears have momentum and could go on the offensive soon. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $33,793 with sideways movement across the board.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC with low volatility in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Pseudonym analyst “Coin Casanova” has compiled bearish on-chain data that suggest more downside for Bitcoin in higher timeframes. Similar to many traders and investors, Casanova feels that some on-chain experts have shared analysis to call the BTC’s price bottom but are unable to do the same where there are “top” signals.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode via Coin Casanova

The analyst claims that Bitcoin seems weak enough to be pushdown by any significant increase in selling pressure. As a first target, Casanova believes Bitcoin could retrace below its yearly open and touch the $28,000.

In higher timeframes, the analyst suggests keeping a close eye on the number of short-term holders using Glassnode’s Bitcoin Realized Cap HOLD Waves. When this metric rises about 80%, BTC’s price experiences a prolonged downside or long period of accumulation. The analyst added:

(…) short term holders: above 80% has mark top before, I believe we need them to completely drop out and back to 20% range

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode via Coin Casanova

When the same metric is applied to long-term holders, the analyst finds bullish that Bitcoin whales have started to reaccumulate. However, it could take a long time for the rise in this metric to impact the market, as seen below. In the meantime, BTC’s price could drop further.

long term holders: we finally making a curve-ish upward, so whales are starting to accumulate but it is clear that we DONT actually BOTTOM until at least we get them back to 50% range.

Bitcoin Whales Sell And Institutions Don’t Catch Them

Casanova claims that Bitfinex whales have been playing a major role in the recent BTC price action. While some analysts, Casanova added, use on-chain activity such as the increase in addresses to support their bullish narrative, this metric can also indicate that large investors have been more active in the past months.

China’s crackdown on the BTC mining sector and the crypto industry has had consequences. Whales have been moving their funds, increasing selling pressure in the market, and affecting Bitcoin’s performance, as seen below.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnove via Coin Casanova

Finally, the institutional adoption of BTC could be under a pause phase. Many experts, Casanova said, exaggerate the influence of these players in the current price action. Some announcements have been made from traditional titans like George Soros’ hedge fudge, but this is insufficient to drive a sustainable rally.

Since May and June’s crash, the level of institutional participation in the crypto market has remained “flat”, the analyst said.

6/ "Institution are buying"
Yah okay. Not enough bro. Not enough.
Flat af since the drop. pic.twitter.com/YkBGODEhG8

— casa (@coin_casanova) July 9, 2021

Bitcoin is going through one of its most singular moments since its inception, big players must make a comeback to add new fuel into BTC’s price. For the time being, the first cryptocurrency by market cap could remain locked in its current range.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

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Ad discliamer

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