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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

Bitcoin Holders Trigger Largest Capitulation In Its History, Bearish Horizon For BTC?

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin follows a rangebound trajectory as the financial world trends to the downside. The first crypto by market cap is moving around critical areas of support as it was rejected from the low $40,000s.

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Consolidates Below $39k: What Could Trigger Another Decline

At the time of writing, BTC’s price trades at $38,500 with a 2% profit in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The general sentiment in the crypto market trends downside with the price of larger cryptocurrencies. Market participants seem to be expecting Bitcoin to reach the low $20,000s or even lower at the mid area around $10,000.

A recent report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode supports the bearish thesis but points to Bitcoin’s capacity to stay at its current levels. The macro-outlook is pessimistic. This has been reflected in traditional equities.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have been trending to the downside with many recording corrections as they failed to meet earnings expectations. Despite the trend, Bitcoin remains at $38,000 and in a range.

It is significant that Bitcoin has been able to hold. Especially, as it has been trading in tandem with big tech equities and as Glassnode records an increase in the number of Long-Term Holders selling their BTC.

The on-chain analytics firm claims that the cryptocurrency has experienced the largest capitulation from Long Term Holders in its history. These investors are usually the last to sell their coins in the market, but the macro-outlook seems to be contributing to this trend.

In addition, Glassnode records an increase in the number of BTC exchanging hands over the past months. This has changed lifted the threshold at which BTC investors record losses. Those levels are located between $33,000 and $42,000.

Therefore, it’s no coincidence that BTC’s price has been moving in that range. This is why those levels could operate as a major support zone in case of further downside. In past bear markets, BTC holders in profit were between 45% to 57% before the cryptocurrency saw a bottom.

This metric currently stands at around 70%. If history is to repeat itself, BTC’s price could drop to around $28,000 to $30,000 to reach a key “pain level”, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin Close To Undervalued Levels

On the other hand, Bitcoin short-term investors could push the price down to that pain level. These market participants record a cost basis of $46,900 per BTC. They are major losses and could panic sell their assets if the bearish trend extends.

Related Reading | Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Fires Back At Warren Buffett’s Bitcoin Slander

Glassnode concluded the following on BTC’s price potential for a re-test of lower levels, and when it could see a bottom:

The current market structure for Bitcoin remains in an extremely delicate equilibrium, with short-term price action and network profitability leaning bearish, whilst long-term trends remain constructive (…). Whether macro forces and correlations with traditional markets drag Bitcoin lower remains to be seen, however numerous fundamental indicators at or approaching noteworthy points of undervaluation.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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