Bitcoin LTHs Hold Significantly More Loss Now Compared To May-July 2021

Keshav Verma

3 years ago

3 mins read

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Data shows Bitcoin long-term holders hold significantly more supply in loss right now compared to May-July of 2021.

15% Of Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Is In Loss Right Now

As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, around 30% of the total BTC supply is being held at a loss at the moment.

The “long-term holder supply” is the part of the total Bitcoin supply that hasn’t shown any movement since more than at least 155 days ago.

The other part of the supply belongs to the “short-term holders.” This cohort doesn’t hold for too long and generally sells before 155 days are up. Active traders usually make up a significant portion of this supply.

Naturally, any coins in the Bitcoin STH supply that age beyond the 155-day mark are then counted under the LTH supply.

The relevant indicator here is the “supply in profit/loss,” which looks at each coin on the chain to see how many coins are in profit or loss right now.

The metric works by comparing the price a coin was last moved at, to the current value. If the last price was more than now, then the Bitcoin is being held in loss at the moment. Otherwise, it’s in profit.

Now, here is a chart that shows the loss distributions of both the LTHs and the STHs.

Looks like the loss split is quite even between the two categories right now | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 16, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, around 15.3% of the Bitcoin LTH supply is in loss currently, with STHs also having almost the same amount in the red at 15%.

During the 2018 and 2020 bear markets, about 35% of the LTHs were in loss at some points, much more than right now.

However, the May-July mini-bear period of last year had only half as many long-term holders holding coins at a loss.

This means that the market profitability is in a much worse place at the moment. While LTHs are unlikely to sell with these losses as they are price insensitive usually, the STHs at 15% are more probable to capitulate if the Bitcoin price continues to struggle.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42.5k, up 3% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 3% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The price of BTC seems to have been climbing up over the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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