An Explosive Bitcoin Price Movement May Not Arrive, Concerning Data Shows

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price has now traded sideways for nearly two full months. The price action has crypto traders bored, and volatility reaching record lows. Analysts everywhere are expecting a major move soon, if not any day now.

However, data comparison between the current trading range and the range prior to the previous bull market, says otherwise.

Stagnant Sideways Bitcoin Price Action Leaves Crypto Analysts Expecting Major Breakout

When investors first get into cryptocurrencies, the first piece of advice they often receive is to never invest more than they can afford to lose.

It is one of the few asset classes that comes with a warning of complete loss. It is due to the explosive and extreme volatility that the asset class is notorious for that these warnings exist.

However, the recent price action in the crypto market is uncharacteristic of Bitcoin and its altcoin cousins. Volatility is at record lows, and most assets are trading sideways just below resistance.

The stalemate has analysts confused, predicting a major move and decision on trend for days to come when the breakout does arrive.

But comparison data shows that the breakout everyone is waiting for may take a lot longer than expected. Worse yet, the trading range may get even tighter, and more boring before the breakout arrives.

Bitcoin Max Intraday Move 2020 | Source: Messari

Past Cycle Data Points To More Boredom in the Days Ahead As Trading Range Tightens

Markets are cyclical, and historic recurrence suggests that the same events often repeat albeit at different times. Past cycles can often shed light as to what to expect during current cycles.

A then and now data comparison between the current trading range and the one ahead of Bitcoin’s last bull run is concerning.

Bitcoin Max Intraday Move 2015-2020 | Source: Messari

The boredom currently shaking out traders from Bitcoin, may continue for a lot longer than anyone expects. Some Bitcoin experts claimed this process could take over 100 days and warned investors to mentally prepare.

However, during the last cycle, sideways price action and a tight trading range lasted a lot longer and became more pronounced.

The variance in the above chart is a lot tighter coiled during 2015 and 2016 than it is now, suggesting things can become more stagnant.

There’s no denying, however, that when the sideways trading does break, fireworks will follow.

Consolidating below resistance often suggests a move about that key level. But other past cycle comparisons could point to downside instead.

Whichever direction chooses from this point on, will define a longer term trend. Bulls will need to show more strength to ensure its a long-term uptrend, rather than a fall into a deeper downtrend for crypto.

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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