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Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around a precarious stage below the $100,000 psychological level as supply in profit just crashed to a new 2025 low. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior, and decreased institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to enter full capitulation. This suggests that price is fragile but not broken, balancing between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline.
Bitcoin Supply In Profit Crash Signals Weak Demand And Price
Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of 2025 and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Glassnode analysts note that this decline indicates fading demand and persistent sell pressure as the BTC price consolidates near $100,000, after falling 21% from its all-time high above $126,000.
According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, near the lower edge of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This drop marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that BTC’s price stability and recovery may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks.
The analysis also disclosed that Bitcoin has broken below the Short-Term Holder’s cost basis of roughly $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that its earlier bullish phase has ended. They say that the market has been unable to regain a solid footing since the October 10 flash crash and reset, with prices hovering just above the Active Investor’s Realized Price at $88,500.
Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are contributing to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has decreased from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Glassnode analysts estimate that around 2.4 million BTC have been spent during this period, which is roughly 12% of its circulating supply.
Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders are now selling into weakness rather than strength, signaling fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to the consistent market declines. While the Relative Unrealized Loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts highlight that the combination of declining profitability and steady long-term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000.
ETF Outflows And Unsteady Derivatives Deepen Market Caution
In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Glassnode analysts note that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, reversing the strong inflow streak from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional appetite, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin exposure as the price declines.
Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative on Binance and major exchanges. In derivatives, analysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has declined from $338 million in April to $118 million per month, indicating that traders are pulling back on risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, oversold but structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next key test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would signal renewed demand, while further weakness could deepen the correction.
