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Following its bullish footprint in April, Bitcoin price action slowed over the past week, recording no significant change. Amid this mini consolidation, analysis page XWIN Research Japan reports that traders remain confidently bearish on the digital asset’s position despite recent gains.
High Open Interest, Negative Funding Rates – Bitcoin Suffers From Intense Pessimism
Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep the contract price close to the actual spot price. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s funding rate is largely negative at -0.02, suggesting a dominance of short traders who are paying a premium to maintain their bearish positions. Notably, this development follows Bitcoin’s bullish relief in April, during which the premier cryptocurrency has gained by approximately 15% since the month commenced. Nevertheless, the funding rates suggest that most traders view this gain as temporary, with a greater preference for a sustained bear market.
At the same time, Open Interest (OI) in the Bitcoin market is surging. The OI represents the total number of active derivative contracts, such as futures or options, currently open in the market. An increase in Open Interest indicates that more capital is being deployed to open contracts in the perpetual market. However, readings from the funding rates suggest this surge in OI is driven by an increase in short positions/contracts. Both metrics combine to paint a rather pessimistic picture of a market environment in which market participants are highly expectant of a deeper downswing.
Negative Setup Favors Potential Bullish Twist
According to analysts at XWIN Research Japan, the current Bitcoin market setup, riddled with a high number of short positions, is precarious. Notably, a price rise would trigger a short squeeze, forcing traders to buy back their holdings at a higher price.
Interestingly, historical data provide another context for this market environment: prolonged periods of extreme funding rates have preceded sharp price surges rather than the expected price decline. However, this is no guarantee of a bullish reversal. Rather, the market is still extremely bearish but nearing conditions for a potential sharp rebound.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,574, down 0.54% over the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 21.56% to $32.16 billion. Amid its current consolidation, Bitcoin’s bullish target lies at $80,000. On the other hand, a fall below the $74,000 support zone might confirm the current bearish sentiment.
