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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Trades Above $40K Once Again, Will This Time Be Different?

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has returned to the $40,000 levels as it bounced back from the high area of around $30,000. The first crypto by market cap managed to hold off the bears and retraced some of this week’s losses.

Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Faces Key Challenge, Why Fresh Decline Still Possible

At the time of writing, BTC’s price trades at $40,200 with a 3% profit in the last 24-hours.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The general sentiment in the market seems pessimistic as Bitcoin remains rangebound in higher timeframes. The cryptocurrency has been trading in the $30,000s to the $60,000s area, and in a tighter range over the past months.

Unable to break above local resistance, located at $45,000 and $48,000, market participants seem to have lost conviction over short-term appreciation unless BTC’s price can break above those levels.

According to a recent market update posted by Material Indicators (MI), in the current BTC’s price range, the area between $36,500 and $40,500 is the most critical. These levels operate as a consolidation range and as a zone that has a “marked prior accumulation phase and distribution”.

In other words, those levels have been important for Bitcoin because they provide clues on potential price action. As seen below, since 2021, when the cryptocurrency reaches these levels either trends upwards to the top of its range (around $69,000) or goes lower to re-test support.

In order to discover BTC’s current phase, MI analysts looked at the cryptocurrency’s heatmap along with three important moving averages. The first is the 100-day moving average located at around $36,000, the second is the 200 moving average at around $21,000, and the third is the 50-moving average at around $45,000.

Showing the chart below, the analysts said:

Zooming in slightly to the 3 Day chart reveals that 3-Day 50MA crosses below the 100 3-Day MA have triggered rallies and interaction with the 3-Day 200 MA has either led to a rally or breakdown to the macro bottom. BTC has checked all of those boxes this week.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Material Indicators via Twitter

Bitcoin About To See More Losses?

The macro-economic outlook spells further losses for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. Therefore, the analysts said the situation could get “worse”.

Material Indicators stated that BTC’s current price action could be a way for large investors to increase their short positions before a re-test of the macro bottom around the 200-day moving average. Therefore, they advised market participants to be cautious. They added:

Until #BTC reclaims the key moving averages these are considered distribution rallies used to sell the rip or add to short positions. Expect more volatility coming into the Monthly close/open.

From MI’s analysis, leverage traders should be careful of upcoming volatility or should check their expectations of an immediate reclaim of the top of the range.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Futures Basis Nears One-Year Lows, How Will This Affect BTC?

At the same time, a large portion of the market seems to be expecting more downside. An increase in short positions could make these participants vulnerable to a long-short squeeze and push Bitcoin into previous highs.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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