Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022: What Data Says

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:18 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is back at $48,000 and with the most recent weekly close, momentum has flipped bullish for the very first time this year. With the momentum now behind bulls, what might this mean for the cryptocurrency market in the weeks and months ahead?

The MACD And Bullish Weekly Bitcoin Momentum

Markets are always seeking equilibrium. When a large move materializes, the same momentum that carried an asset upward, pulls it downward when the trend begins to topple. This makes momentum among the most important factors in determining if and when a trend might change.

Few tools measure momentum better than the Moving Average Convergence Divergence. On weekly timeframes, the logarithmic MACD has opened with green on the histogram and formed a bull cross of the MACD line and signal line. It marks the first time the signal has appeared in all of 2022.

Weekly momentum only now opened bullish | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The above chart demonstrates that momentum shifts tend to yield significant trend changes, but tend to lag behind precise tops or bottoms. It is for this reason that the MACD is considered a “lagging indicator.” Lagging indicator or not, the results are what matter.

Below represents an analysis of past bull crossovers. Red rallies failed to produce significant new ATHs, but on average still yielded a 40% gain. Green rallies produced a return of roughly 327% across three major impulses. The most recent bull cross comes with a potential bullish divergence. Notably, a divergence appeared prior to the culmination of the 2017 bull cycle.

Measuring the results of past momentum shifts | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

What Wavelength Suggests About The Current Crypto Cycle

The combined analysis predicts a potential 40% rally from current prices on the low end, which would take Bitcoin price toward ATHs, but fall slightly short of a new record. The higher end of the scale projects a possible 327% rally that would push the top cryptocurrency a touch beyond $200,000 per BTC.

Momentum moves in waves. In the below chart, sine waves are layered over the LMACD in an effort to highlight intra-cycle wavelengths. Combined with Elliott Wave Theory, the same sine waves appear to predict odd-numbered impulses and the bottom of C-waves with a high degree of accuracy.

Sine waves suggest the cycle grand finale is near | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The smaller wave harmonic waves are simply pieces of the larger cycle wave in blue. The blue wave structure added helps to explain the sudden strength of Black Thursday in 2020, and why Bitcoin price couldn’t reach $100,000 in late 2021 as the market had expected. When the strength of a larger wave and smaller harmonics combine, major cycle events occur.

If momentum continues to follow the same wave structure, the final wave up in Bitcoin might have already begun.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

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Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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