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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Rally Towards All-Time Highs: Top Analysts Share Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Rally Towards All-Time Highs: Top Analysts Share Predictions

First ETF Trading Day Could Blast Bitcoin Price Past $50,000: Here’s Why

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin ETF first day

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The crypto space witnessed a historic moment yesterday with the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), a development that’s been eagerly anticipated since the Winklevoss twins filed for the first proposed Bitcoin ETF back on July 1, 2013. This pivotal event coincides with the 15th anniversary of Hal Finney’s tweet “Running Bitcoin,” marking a symbolic milestone in the digital currency’s journey.

Despite the monumental approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin’s price reaction was muted, maintaining stability around the $46,000 mark. This suggests that the approval had already been factored into the market price. However, the landscape could shift dramatically with today’s commencement of trading for these ETFs.

Spot ETFs, as opposed to future ETFs, necessitate the acquisition of physical Bitcoins by the issuers, thereby exerting direct buying pressure on the market. This aspect, combined with the high conviction among long-term investors (“hodlers”) and the historic low Bitcoin reserves on crypto exchanges, sets the stage for potentially volatile price movements.

Staggering Bitcoin Inflow Projections For Day 1

Projections for ETF inflows are staggering. Bloomberg anticipates a record-breaking $4 billion inflow on the first trading day for spot Bitcoin ETFs, with issuers collectively contributing $312.8 million in Bitcoin seeding. BlackRock’s ETF is particularly notable, with an expected $2 billion in inflows, as per Bloomberg Intelligence.

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BREAKING: SEC Approves All 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC Price Holds Steady At $46,000

1 year ago

Standard Chartered recently projected that 2024 could see $50-100 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, with a potential Bitcoin price reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. Mike Alfred, a Bitcoin expert, commented on the potential scale of these inflows:

Bitwise has confirmed they have $100M+ of investor commitments for tomorrow on day 1. I’m certain Blackrock is hoping for $3-4B. Invesco/Galaxy will also come out swinging. That’s a lot of corn. Hope the exchanges are ready.

Tuur Demeester of Adamant Research highlighted the significance of the ongoing fee war among issuers, suggesting that the intense competition reflects expectations of substantial capital inflows. “The intensity of this Bitcoin ETF bidding war is telling me the issuers believe that the winner’s low fees will be compensated by HUGE $$ inflows,” he remarked.

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Alistair Milne from Altana Digital echoed these sentiments, anticipating record-breaking inflows and a resultant surge in global interest in Bitcoin. “Tune in tomorrow when we’ll try to break the record for first day ETF inflows, create global FOMO and initiate the Bitcoin supercycle,” Milne wrote via X.

Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. may have found a reason for Bitcoin’s lagging performance so far. He pointed out that “miners have decided to take advantage of the cash inflow into the market.”

Bitcoin miner flows
BTC miner flows | Source: X @AxelAdlerJr

Next Target $50,000?

Raghu Yarlagadda, CEO of FalconX, in an interview with Bloomberg Technology, emphasized the crucial impact of net inflows on BTC’s price in the coming week:

What we’ve been hearing is most people are pricing in net inflows into Bitcoin in the first week or so at $1 to $2 billion. So if the net inflows are less $1 to $2 billion, it will have an adverse effect on price, and if it is more than $1 to $2 billion, it will have a positive effect on price.

1/ Based on customer conversations, $1 to $2 billion of spot #BitcoinETF inflows in the first week are priced into Bitcoin at $45K. Inflows could be more with ETF fee wars beginning this morning. 2024 is setup well for crypto with ETF approval, BTC halving, Ethereum upgrade, and… pic.twitter.com/L71Lkscfh5

— Raghu Yarlagadda (@2Ragu) January 8, 2024

British HODL, a known analyst on X, provided a deeper insight into the current market dynamics, explaining the lack of immediate price movement post-ETF approval and outlining scenarios for significant price changes depending on the inflows after the ETFs start trading.

“For anyone wondering, Bitcoin price has not moved because: Leverage was wiped out yesterday, everyone who wanted in before the ETF, seems to be in. Only after 9.30am tomorrow can the ETFs actually start accepting capital and thus start acquiring Bitcoin,” he stated and added that if Bloomberg is right with $4 billion coming in on the first day, “we *could* see a price of $50k-$57k by close of trading on Friday. The buying pressure has not even STARTED yet.”

At press time, BTC continued its sideways trend and traded at $46,267.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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