Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom Yet? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says

Keshav Verma

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 7:48 am

3 mins read

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Bitcoin continued to crash down yesterday, with the coin hitting as low as $21k before rebounding to current values. Has the crypto made the bottom yet?

Bitcoin NUPL Indicator Assumes Negative Values For First Time Since 2020

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the NUPL metric has declined below zero, which could be a sign that the crypto may be approaching a bottom.

The Bitcoin “net unrealized profit and loss” (NUPL) is an indicator that’s defined as the difference between the market cap and the realized cap, divided by the market cap.

In simpler terms, what this metric tells us is whether the overall market is currently holding an unrealized profit or a loss.

When the NUPL’s value is greater than zero, it means the investors as a whole are in a state of profit at the moment.

On the other hand, values of the metric less than zero imply the Bitcoin market as a whole is now holding an unrealized loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC NUPL over the last few years:

The value of the indicator seems to have plunged down recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL has sharply decreased in value over the past couple of days as the price of the crypto has observed a crash.

The indicator now has a negative value, suggesting that the overall BTC market is now holding some unrealized loss.

The last time the indicator dropped this low was back in March 2020, following the crash caused by the onset of COVID-19.

Historically, Bitcoin has approached a bottom whenever the NUPL metric has reached a negative value of around 0.2.

This is because as the indicator decreases further in value, investors start going deeper into red, and the motive to sell starts dying down.

While the Bitcoin NUPL has now gone below zero, the metric’s value is still larger than it was during the previous bottoms.

So, if a similar trend as those past instances follows now as well, then BTC may have room to decline further still before the bottom is in.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $22k, down 33% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the value of the coin over the last five days.

The price of BTC has crashed down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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