S2F Creator Beckons Beginning Of Second Leg Of Bitcoin Bull Run

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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PlanB, the popularizer of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, says the current bull run still has a second leg remaining.

PlanB “Awaiting” The Second Leg Of This Bitcoin Bull Market

According to PlanB on Twitter, the S2F and S2FX models predict a second leg in the current bull run that will bring new highs for BTC.

As the name may suggest, the Bitcoin S2F or stock-to-flow model is based on the ratio between the stock (supply) and the flow (supply).

The model is actually a general one, meaning it can be applied on any commodity. Higher the S2F value, more scarce is the asset.

The method has been popularly used for precious metals like gold and silver, while PlanB applied it to Bitcoin. Here is how the current S2F price chart for BTC looks like:

The price as predicted by the Bitcoin S2F model | Source: buybitcoinworldwide.com

As the graph shows, BTC’s price seems to be treading remarkably close to the line predicted by the S2F model. There are certain regions of deviations, but the overall trend seems to be intact nonetheless.

Related Reading | A Generational Bitcoin Buy Signal Is Almost Back

Below is the chart that PlanB posted today. It shows BTC’s trajectory after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving.

Red indicates the current 2020 bull run | Source: PlanB

The two green lines in the chart show the price targets as predicted by the S2F and S2FX models. The S2FX model is a slight modification of the original S2F method.

As the above chart shows, both the rallies after a halving in 2012 (cyan) and 2016 (blue) seem to follow a specific pattern. The peak seems to have shifted later for the 2016 run as compared to the 2012 one.

If there is indeed a pattern here, the current bull run isn’t over and a peak is yet to be reached. Since the time period between the halving and the peak seems to be only going up, the current one will still take a while longer to reach it. This is the “second leg” PlanB awaits.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is just under $36k, up 15% in the last 7 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the coin’s value over the past 3 months:

BTC's price shoots up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Bitcoin has continued to move up over the weekend as the coin breaks above $45k for the first time since 16 May. It’s unclear whether the crypto can retain the trend and keep pushing forward, or if it would hit another resistance wall and slip back down.

If the S2F pattern indeed holds, then perhaps BTC is headed towards a bull run right now. A related S2F indicator also suggests the coin will move on a tear now that it has touched an important trend line.

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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