Start Of Bear Period? Current Bitcoin Trend Looks Similar To June

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin on-chain data shows current trend with the short-term holder SOPR looks similar to that in June. This may mean that a bear period similar to then has started.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Continue To Realize Losses

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, Bitcoin short-term holders have continued to realize profits recently, as suggested by the SOPR. This trend may be similar to the one seen in June.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” or SOPR in short, is an indicator that measures the profit ratio of the overall market by looking at the price each coin was sold at and comparing it with the price it was bought at.

When the value of this metric is above one, it means holders are, on an average, selling at a profit. On the other hand, SOPR values less than one would mean investors are currently dumping their Bitcoin at a loss.

The value of the metric when exactly equal to one would imply that the overall BTC market is currently breaking even.

A modification of this indicator is the short-term holder (STH) SOPR. This metric accounts for only those coins that were held for less than 155 days before being sold.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past year:

The indicator currently seems to be below one | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has remained below one for a while now, showing that these holders have been selling at a loss.

Less than a couple of weeks back, the indicator retested the SOPR equal to one trendline. However, it was rejected back downwards.

The reason for the rejection is possibly that since the SOPR = 1 line represents the “break-even” point, holders would be keen to sell as soon as the price reaches that point as they would feel they got their money “back.”

Related Reading | Altcoin Underdogs Outperform Bitcoin To Kick Off 2022

A similar kind of retest of the metric was also seen back in June, when a mini-bear market period was going on for Bitcoin.

As the indicator was also rejected downwards then just like now, it’s possible the market may observe a similar bear market situation.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42.7k down 10% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 12% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the crypto over the last five days.

BTC's price has crashed down in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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