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Breaking News: Crypto Bulls Rejoice: Congresswoman Confirms Powell’s Imminent Firing

Twin Peaks: Comparing The Two 2021 Bitcoin Tops

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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Speculation has been going on in the crypto community as to whether the $69k Bitcoin top was the peak of this bull run. Here’s a comparison between some indicators to see how this top compares with the $65k April peak.

Comparing the Metrics Between The Nov 10th And April 14th Peaks

As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, most of the sentiment measuring metrics highlight the differences between the two tops.

The first relevant metric is the futures open interest indicator, which shows the total amount of Bitcoin involved in futures contracts at the end of a trading day.

Here is how its chart compares between the April and November peaks:

Bitcoin Open Interest

Looks like April 14th top had decently more open interest

As you can see above, the April peak had almost 50k BTC more in open interest. This means that there was much more excess leverage in the market back then.

Related Reading | Brace For More Downtrend: 15% Of Bitcoin Supply Is Now In Loss

Below is another chart that compares the unregulated futures basis between the two tops. “Basis” is basically the difference between Bitcoin’s price and the futures price.

 Futures Market

Average 3-month annualized basis in the unregulated futures market

The unregulated futures market basis reached almost 50% on April 14th while it was only 17% during November 10th.

The basis gap between the unregulated market and CME was also higher for the former top, and so was the Korean premium. The funding rates, as well, showed substantially higher values for the period.

Average Daily Funding Rates

Nov 10th recorded relatively less overheated indicators

What these metrics show is that the futures froth was clearly more pronounced during the April top, and that the market was more overextended.

Two other indicators, however, had higher values for Nov 10th. The first of these was the fear and greed index, a metric that measures how fearful or greedy the market is.

Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Show Positive Signs, Why ETH Could Outperform Bitcoin

The other was the global open interest share of Bybit and Binance. Here are how these indicators looked like for the two periods:

Bitcoin Fear And Greed

The metrics where Nov 10th lead April 14th

In conclusion the $69k Nov top has some clear differences from the $65k April peak. So it’s possible this might not be the bull run peak just yet. Some other on-chain indicators also back the idea.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $56.5k, down 6% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the coin has lost 10% in value.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the price of the coin over the past five days:

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price continues to tumble down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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