Why Bitcoin Could Collapse Another 50%, Says Michael “Big Short” Burry

Reynaldo Marquez

2 years ago

3 mins read

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Former hedge fund manager Michael Burry made another bearish prediction for Bitcoin and traditional equities. Renowned for his short position which preceded the U.S. housing market crash, and one of the periods in recent economic history for the world, Burry believes more pain for BTC’s price is ahead.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $19,400 with an 8% loss in the past 7 days. The cryptocurrency was moving sideways around its 2017 all-time high levels, $20,000, but the market took yet another turn to the downside and might re-test its yearly lows near $17,000.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD — BTC’s price trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

This could be a fraction of future losses, according to Burry. The former hedge fund manager has been bearish on BTC seems the cryptocurrency was trading north of $60,000, in October 2021. Via his Twitter account, Burry asked his followers tips on how to short a cryptocurrency:

Ok, I haven’t done this before, how do you short a cryptocurrency. Do you have to secure a borrow? Is there a short rebate? Can the position be squeezed and called in? In such volatile situations, I tend to think it’s best not to short (…).

A short time after, BTC’s price reached its current all-time high which could have resulted in major profits for Burry, if he was able to open a short position. In that case, he might still wait on taking profits, according to its latest prediction, traditional equities and BTC could experience more downside on the back of a bad earnings season:

Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there.

Some Good News For Bitcoin In The Short Term

Two experts recently shared potential bullish catalyzers for Bitcoin, at least for a short period of time. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for investment firm Fidelity, believes equities have a chance to rebound from their recent crash.

However, Timmer believes the risk-off season could extend further while bond yields trend upwards. In the upcoming earnings season for U.S. publicly traded companies, one could provide more clues on what’s next for the market, including Bitcoin which has been displaying a correlation with traditional equities.

With bond yields down and equities up, the correlation between the two asset classes remains slightly positive on a 12-month basis. It’s rare to see the Z-score for both stocks and bonds so negative at the same time. pic.twitter.com/BhJ8BklPmo

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 1, 2022

On the other hand, Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone has been expecting a drop in the price of commodities. If these assets trend to the downside, the Fed might slow down on its economic tightening and provide risk-on assets like Bitcoin with some room for relief.

Commodities rallying often indicate high inflation, they suggest the opposite when they trend to the downside which could suggest the U.S. financial institution might be succeeding at cutting down inflation, currently their apparent number one priority. McGlone said:

Commodities Aren’t Complicated, 1H Was High: When the history of 2022 is written, there’s a good chance that the 1H pump in commodity prices will play out like similar surges in the past, with a reciprocal dump.

Timmer and other experts believe that negative news on the economy, talks of economic recession, and a sustained market crash might allow the Fed to become more dovish on its monetary policy. The market has reacted to the downside as a result of the Fed, but some believe this will be insufficient to stop inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed doubts about a less aggressive monetary policy. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Powell said bringing down inflation will result in “some pain” for global markets. Does this mean Burry will be right as in 2008?

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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