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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Why The Next 60 Days In Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Wild

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
1 year ago
2 mins read
Picture of bitcoin gold coins

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Bitcoin could retest the lows of its current range as its price trends to the downside. At the time of writing, BTC’s trades at $32,277 with a 2.3% loss in the daily chart. Investors and traders wonder if these levels will hold as bulls seem to lack conviction in lower timeframes.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC trends downwards in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Trader Josh Rager highlighted that Bitcoin has been moving sideways lately. The cryptocurrency has experienced less volatility than previous months with continual compression, at least, in the daily and weekly charts.

Rager set $36,000 as a critical price mark for the market to regain confidence. At the same time, other traders expect $31,000 to be a critical area of support that could prevent further downside.

Analyst Allen Au has noted a pattern in Bitcoin’s bull phases for 2013, 2017, and the current price action. The analyst believes that after a 60-day period, BTC’s price volatility has reduced from V1 to V2, as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Allen Au

Au expects this phenomenon has repeated in this bull phase. Thus, as in the past, the analyst expects BTC’s price to increase. In 2013 and 2017, this upwards movement led Bitcoin to its previous highs and marked the end of those years’ bull cycles.

As pseudonyms trader Income Sharks said, current market conditions benefit the bears. In order to resume the bull-run, these two market components must change, the trader added:

Second time getting a 4h Supertrend rejection. With volume this low and lower volatility it tends to favor more downside. Higher volume and volatility favors upside.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Income Sharks

Bitcoin, Calm Before The Storm?

Many experts believe Bitcoin is setting the stage for a big move either up to previous highs or down below its yearly open. Analyst Checkmate from Glassnode Insights has recorded an increase in activity in the spot and derivatives market and on-chain metrics.

Combined with a change in the number of BTC deposited into exchange platforms, the first cryptocurrency by market cap might come out of its current range. In May, exchanges saw a rise in their BTC reserves, as selling pressure increase.

According to Glassnode’s Net Transfer Volume from Exchanges for the past two weeks, this trend could be reversing. During this period, there have been more “positive” exchange outflows with around 2,000 BTC leaving these platforms every day.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode Insights

Moreover, Bitcoin-based derivates have stayed relatively quiet after May’s “Great leverage flush back”, Checkmate noted. He claimed the following:

Since the sell-off in May, futures open interest has remained bound between $10.7B and $13.0B with only a handful of notable builds or declines within that range. Open interest remains 57% below the ATH set in April as Coinbase went public.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Glassnode Insights

In addition, volume in the derivates sector has been on a decline. Thus, Bitcoin could have more room to recover, as there is less leverage at play to impact the market. Experts are yet divided on future price actions, but they agreed that a big move is forming.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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We cover BTC news related to bitcoin exchanges, bitcoin mining and price forecasts for various cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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