Why These Bitcoin Long-Term Metrics Show Possible Bear Market Turnaround

Reynaldo Marquez

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 8:56 am

3 mins read

Bitcoin price Crypto Quant Data Hints An Imminent Bitcoin Price Rally, Will It Be Strong?

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Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the better part of a week after rebounding from a monthly low at around $17,900. The number one cryptocurrency hinted at a potential breakout, but once again the bulls are losing momentum leaving BTC’s price stuck at its current levels.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $19,500 with a 2% profit in the last 24 hours and sideways movement over the past week. The crab-like price action is replicating throughout the crypto market with large assets moving either sideways or to the downside.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 1 — BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: **BTCUSDT Tradingview**

Bitcoin Is Forming A Convincing Bottom?

Data from research firm Santiment indicates that Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past 4 months with spikes in volatility over that period. Regardless of BTC’s price, the research firm claims that the cryptocurrency might be in the process of bottoming based on several metrics.

First, Santiment looked into the cryptocurrency’s distribution or the amount of BTC currently being sold in the market. After the pronounced crash from the 2021 highs, the current BTC market, the research firm claims, is looking like the 2017 to 2019 period.

As seen in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin saw a decline in its mean dollar invested age (BTC) and its Market Value To Realized Value, a metric used to gauge investor behavior. As seen in the chart below, when the MVRV crashed, with the mean dollar invested going the opposite, Bitcoin tends to move sideways.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3 — Source: Santiment

This crab-like price action can last for many years, but they hint at the cryptocurrency finally reaching a long-term bottom. In addition, social volume, the number of people talking about Bitcoin on social media, has been declining following the price action.

This indicates that levels of euphoria are low and approaching their 2018 bottom. During these times, there are usually levels of leverage and speculation in the market.

Santiment wrote the following on the similarities between Bitcoin’s current price and its 2018 price action. At that time the cryptocurrency recorded a new all-time high, and went into a multi-year bear market:

Bitcoin’s long-term metrics have shown encouraging signs of a turnaround for a few months now, despite prices being stuck in the mud. (…) looking at the long-term data current situation doesn’t look as terrible as it might seem from the outside perspective. Of course, history does not repeat but it might rhyme.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2 — Source: Santiment

This Is When BTC’s Price Might Push Back On The Bears

Despite the data shown above, the Bitcoin price has been displaying a high correlation with traditional equities. The cryptocurrency is moving more and more in tandem with major legacy stock indexes, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

At the same time, these assets have been and are likely to continue experiencing fresh selling pressure as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its current monetary policy. Put into motion to slow down inflation, the Fed has been hiking interest rates and reducing its balance sheet.

The latest U.S. economic data, as NewsBTC has been reporting, indicate that the financial institution could continue to put pressure on inflation, equities, and Bitcoin. While this status quo remains, the crypto market is unlikely to form a convincing bottom, or at the very least, might see its upside potential limited.

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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