Crypto Analyst: Bull Market Hinges On This Indicator Reaching 45%

Ash Tiwari

8 months ago

3 mins read

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In a detailed post on X, crypto analyst Jamie Coutts outlined various indicators he monitors to gauge when the market might pick up bullish momentum.

Crypto Market Might Be In The Final Stage Of The Bearish Phase

Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at the financial knowledge and education platform RealVision, noted that the cryptocurrency market has gradually declined. The top 200 equal-weight index (EWI) shows that the leading 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap have experienced a 55% pullback over the past six months.

Despite this downward trajectory, Coutts believes the risk/reward ratio is favorable for adding select digital assets at current levels.

Coutts highlighted the steep surge in the alt season indicator, a data point that measures the degree by which altcoins outperform Bitcoin (BTC). However, this rise is not accompanied by a sustained Bitcoin rally, which requires its price to be above its all-time-high (ATH) value.

As a result, the upward-moving altseason indicator may be short-lived. Still, Coutts suspects the market is “in the final throes of the bearish thrust.”

The analyst emphasized that even when altcoins outperform BTC in terms of price, investing in them may not always be wise if they are still in a downward trend. Coutts recalled a similar situation in 2022, during the collapse of the FTX exchange. He suggests that the ideal time to invest in altcoins is when they are trending upward not only on the absolute price chart but also on the relative price chart.

This Indicator Must Hit 45% For Bull Market To Resume

According to Coutts, one key metric to determine whether the market has entered bullish territory is the percentage of digital assets above their 200-day moving average (MA). Currently, only 11% of digital assets are above the 200-day MA. For a bull market to resume, at least 45% of digital assets must be above this level.

For the uninitiated, the 200-day MA is a technical analysis indicator that represents the average price of an asset over the past 200 trading days. Traders and analysts use it to identify the long-term trend of an asset, including digital assets like BTC.

Despite the recent market downturn, certain fundamental metrics within the crypto ecosystem, such as daily active users (DAU), daily transactions, and network value-to-fee ratio, have increased in the past six months. Further, daily fees are down 84%, a decrease that can be attributed to the implementation of EIP-4844, which slashed transaction fees for Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem users.

Coutts added that a bull market could be on the horizon when prices and fees begin to trend upward together. “We’re not there yet, but prices will lead, and fees will naturally follow,” he noted. As of press time, the total crypto market cap, excluding BTC, is $879.676 billion.

crypto cap — Total crypto market cap excluding BTC on the weekly chart | Source: CRYPTOCAP on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from x.com and Tradingview.com

Ash Tiwari

Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.

Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.

In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.

A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.

When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.

Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.

Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.

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