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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions

Could A Dangerous Bear Market Fractal Be Brewing In Bitcoin?

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
Last Updated: June 11, 2024 6:52 am
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD

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After a rejection at the mid-range of its current levels, Bitcoin sits at $44,066 with a 5% loss in the past 24 hours. The first cryptocurrency by market still has profits in higher timeframes, but in the short term, it seems at risk of another correction.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC on a downtrend in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

As trader Bob Loukas claimed via his Twitter account, Bitcoin is approaching a “Bull trap target”. Over the past two weeks, BTC’s price moved relatively quickly from the low $30,000s after trading at that level since the market made a 50% correction during May 2021.

Thus, the Fear and Greed Index flipped positive for the first time in that period, as investors expected further gains while Bitcoin moved into the low $40,000s. Although the recent rally has shown conviction, Loukas hasn’t ruled a full reversal in the downside trend experienced since May. The trade made the following recommendation:

Don’t get me wrong, very encouraging cycle developments here.  But it’s not complete trend reversal confirmation yet.  Having a plan is not weakness. When we get clean confirmation of a new uptrend, then your mindset on allocation can be skewed accordingly.

The current selling pressure leading to losses in the daily might have come from the mining sector. Data from ByteTree records an increase in the BTC supply sold by miners over the past 24 hours, for the first time in weeks, this metric has surpassed the amount of BTC produced during the same period.

As seen below, miners’ inventory stands at a negative 169 with an 881 BTC production during the past day.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: ByteTree

Bitcoin To Reclaim New Highs In 2023?

Analyst firm Material Indicators uses historical data from exchanges order books to predict BTC’s price potential future trends. As seen below, their fractal for the BTC/USD contemplates a period of sideways movement in August before a potential revisit of the lows at $40,000.

After, Bitcoin could trend upwards and reclaim the territory north of $50,000 before a major crash back to its yearly open around October. Later, the bullish momentum could resume and BTC’s price could make its way back to its current levels.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Material Indicators via Telegram

Trader Nunya Bizniz also published a fractal to predict a potential moved to the downside for the BTC/USD pair. This fractal has been created for higher timeframes ranging from the current price action, all the way to 2023.

As seen below, the trader expects Bitcoin to retest the mid-levels of its previous range around $30,000 as the end of 2021 approaches. Thus, BTC could find support at $34,000, if the bulls are unable to display strength.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Nunya Bizniz via Twitter

The fractal is more bearish than the one presented by Material Indicators, but both coincide with more room for the bulls to continue to push the price into previous highs. The fractal presented by Bizniz contemplates the latter for 2022 with July as a potential target to confirm a move into a new Bitcoin all-time high.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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