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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Ethereum Reaches Critical Inflection Point Against Bitcoin: What Happens Next?

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
ethereum

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Ethereum and Bitcoin represent the number two and one cryptocurrencies by market cap, respectively. The two top coins tend to move in tandem, with Ether gaining the slight edge performance-wise when the crypto market turns bullish.

That hasn’t recently been the case, causing the ETHBTC trading pair to reach a precarious inflection point that could cause further discrepancy between the two crypto giants. Here is a closer look at what could happen next.

The History Of Ethereum Outperforming Bitcoin Could Be At Stake

Ethereum price has been relatively muted compared to its typical outperformance over Bitcoin when the crypto market turns bullish. Since the beginning of 2020, the crypto market has been mostly leaning in Ether’s favor.

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The overperformance of the Etheruem side of the ETHBTC trading pair can be seen in the chart below. The same chart also depicts two converging, long-term trend lines taking the two cryptocurrencies to an unusual inflection point.

ETHBTC_2023-01-31_09-40-50

Is a breakdown against Bitcoin imminent? | ETHBTC on TradingView.com

The longer of the two trend lines dates back to the launch of Ethereum. From the lowest touch of the trend line to where the upper trend line formed, ETH grew 9000% against BTC. From the top trend line to the bottom, ETH fell 89% against BTC in a shocking twist of fate.

From the second lower trend line touch to the second upper trend line touch, ETH rose another 290% against BTC. Since then, the pair have been in consolidation as the two trend lines narrow further, converging into an apex. When highly volatile assets tighten up this much, the eventual move tends to be explosive.

What Happens Next In ETHBTC?

The monthly LMACD (pictured above) shows that momentum is in favor of more downside for ETH against BTC, hinting at the trend line breaking down. Although Bitcoin appears poised to rally once again against USD and Ether tends to outperform during such phases, cyclically, continued weakness in Ethereum against BTC would make sense.

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Bitcoin Weekly RSI Reaches Line Between Bear & Bull Market

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Despite limited data to go on, a cyclical rhythm of troughs against Bitcoin could be developing on the trading pair. Cyclical troughs are usually established following a “valid trend line” breaking down, according to Hurst Cycle Theory.

When divided into separate corrections, each ETHBTC cycle appears to have its own, individual valid trend line. Each ETHBTC cycle has formed what resembles a head and shoulders top reversal pattern, with the second cycle lacking the breakdown from the neckline.

ETHBTC_2023-01-31_10-48-42

Cycle theory doesn't bode well for Ether | ETHBTC on TradingView.com

The first cycle ended when the weekly LMACD fell below the zero line at the trend line – a situation possibly brewing on the ETHBTC trading pair currently. The breakdown the last time caused Ethereum to sink almost 68% relative to Bitcoin.

The breakdown in ETHBTC the last time represented a worsening of the crypto bear market. Although the market bottomed in late 2018, Bitcoin continued to outperform ETH on the ratio until September 2019. BTC was bullish for the a significant portion of time before Ether was able to refuel and return to outperformance.

Considering the time involved in the converging trend lines, the breakout or breakdown will be powerful, with the potential to kick off a new trend for the next several months. Which direction does ETHBTC ultimately head next?

Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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